Cowboys vs. Texans prediction favors Houston to win in NFL Week 4 [2026]

Since our Cowboys-Texans predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Cowboys and Texans, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Texans a 58.8% chance of defeating the Cowboys in Week 4 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Texans winning 25-23.

Key factors favoring the Texans:

• Houston Texans Team Rating
• Dallas Cowboys Defense
• Houston Texans Defense

According to our model, the Cowboys (+3.5) have a 59.3% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 48.5 points has a 53.9% chance of going over.

The main contributing factors to the over being more likely are:

• Playing Conditions
• QB Rating

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 4 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Cowboys +3.5 (-127) / Texans -3.5 (-116)
• Moneyline: Cowboys +141, Texans -144
• Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-106/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Cowboys +3.5 @ -127 via Caesars
• Moneyline: Texans @ 59¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 48.5 @ 51¢ via Novig

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Cowboys +3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Cowboys vs. Texans TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Cowboys vs. Texans?

According to our model, David Montgomery is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Cowboys vs. Texans.

Our projections give Montgomery a 54.3% chance of scoring a TD at Reliant Stadium, while the running back is a 12.8% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Dallas Cowboys

• Javonte Williams (RB): 52.0% probability
• CeeDee Lamb (WR): 36.3%
• George Pickens (WR): 30.1%
• Jake Ferguson (TE): 23.6%
• Ryan Flournoy (WR): 18.6%

Houston Texans

• David Montgomery (RB): 54.3% prob.
• Nico Collins (WR): 41.7%
• Woody Marks (RB): 26.7%
• Dalton Schultz (TE): 25.9%
• Kayshon Boutte (WR): 18.0%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Dallas Cowboys

• Javonte Williams (RB): 13.0% prob.
• CeeDee Lamb (WR): 8.0%
• George Pickens (WR): 6.3%
• Jake Ferguson (TE): 4.7%
• Ryan Flournoy (WR): 3.6%

Houston Texans

• David Montgomery (RB): 12.8% prob.
• Nico Collins (WR): 8.8%
• Woody Marks (RB): 5.1%
• Dalton Schultz (TE): 4.9%
• Kayshon Boutte (WR): 3.2%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Cowboys and Texans. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 4 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Cowboys' Dak Prescott is projected to have a big game with 272 passing yards, while the Texans' C.J. Stroud is expected to throw for 247 yards.

Cowboys rushing

• Javonte Williams: 63 yds
• Dak Prescott: 13 yds
• Tyler Goodson: 12 yds

Texans rushing

• David Montgomery: 51 yds
• Woody Marks: 39 yds
• C.J. Stroud: 15 yds

Cowboys receiving

• CeeDee Lamb: 80 yds
• George Pickens: 71 yds
• Ryan Flournoy: 39 yds
• Jake Ferguson: 31 yds
• Javonte Williams: 17 yds

Texans receiving

• Nico Collins: 77 yds
• Dalton Schultz: 45 yds
• Xavier Hutchinson: 34 yds
• Kayshon Boutte: 31 yds
• Jaylin Noel: 18 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 4 action between the Texans and Cowboys at Reliant Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Reliant Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Texans, with a 58.8% win probability, will likely beat the Cowboys in Week 4 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.