Colston Loveland: Week 1 dud an outlier or sign of things to come?

Bears TE Colston Loveland entered 2026 as one of the most talked-about young tight ends in football.

The No. 10 overall pick in 2025, he caught 58 passes for 713 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie, good enough to rank at the top of offseason NFL fantasy projections behind incumbent stars Trey McBride and Brock Bowers.

Then Week 1 happened: two targets, zero catches, in a game where the Bears put up a record-tying 59 points, all on offense in what was otherwise a perfect NFL betting environment.

The disconnect was jarring given the circumstances with Chicago's offense rolling, and Loveland leading the team in routes run, yet somehow finished without a single reception and just a pair of targets.

It's the kind of week that makes fantasy managers and NFL bettors scratch their heads and wonder whether it's an early outlier or a foreboding sign of what's to come. Thanks to Dimers' NFL predictions, it's looking more like the former.

Colston Loveland projections vs. Vikings in Week 2

For Week 2 against the Vikings, our model has Loveland projected for 3.9 targets, turning into 51.1 receiving yards, with a 32.0% chance to score his first touchdown of the season, all found in our Bears vs. Vikings prediction.

That's a respectable line against a Vikings defense that gave up multiple big plays to Packers TE Tucker Kraft in Week 1, hauling in 3 of 6 receptions for 65 yards.

Loveland would rank as TE5 in Dimers' NFL player projections, with some value identified on him getting back in the boxscore, but off of limited volume.

Colston Loveland's Week 2 projections.

Bettors looking strictly for value should consider fading Loveland's receptions line, with a 64.8% probability and a High Edge detected in Dimers' NFL player props.

It may not be the ceiling befitting a hyped second-year tight end, but the zero-catch line from Week 1 looks more like an aberration than a trend in Dimers' data.

Bears vs. Vikings analysis

Chicago is favored at home, with Dimers giving the Bears a 66.7% win probability against Minnesota's 33.3%. Our projected final score, Bears 26 - Vikings 22, falls just under a total (48.5) that comes with little betting value.

Where Dimers does identify betting value is on the spread, with the Bears covering the 3.5-point spread as favorites at a 55.1% probability, a 3.2% edge against the current best odds.

Another high-scoring Bears afternoon should mean more opportunities for Loveland to get involved, and for Chicago's hyped sophomore tight end, this week looks like more of what he can be.

Bet on NFL Week 2 with Dimers Pro

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You can find picks, props and predictions for every single NFL game this season via Dimers' NFL predictions.

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