Baker Mayfield projected stats against former team when the Bucs face the Browns

Four years ago, Baker Mayfield's first game after Cleveland shipped him to Carolina ended in a 26-24 gut-punch: 235 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a walk-off field goal that spoiled his revenge bid and earned Cleveland its first Week 1 win in 20 years.

Mayfield will face the team that drafted him once again in Buccaneers vs. Browns on Sunday, September 20, but the situation is much different, both for Mayfield and for NFL betting.

Rather than a QB looking for a fresh start, Mayfield is a $165 million quarterback coming off a career reboot in Tampa Bay, and Sunday's kickoff at Raymond James Stadium marks his first shot at the Browns since that Week 1, 2022 loss. It's game Mayfield has said himself that he "circled on the calendar," and the state of the Browns' QB situation isn't lost on him.

Cleveland's quarterback room has only gotten messier since his departure. The Browns enter 2026 with Deshaun Watson under center amid renewed controversy over that decision, a stark contrast to the stability Mayfield has found since taking over the Bucs in 2023.

Baker Mayfield Week 2 projections vs. Browns

Our model has Mayfield passing for 211.5 yards on 18.7 completions, with a 14.0% chance of throwing at least one touchdown and a 2.7% shot at opening the scoring himself via the ground, all found within our NFL Player Projections Hub.

It's a modest line for a passer currently ranked 31st among fantasy quarterbacks this week after throwing for 216 yards and 0 touchdowns in Week 1, though he did find the endzone via a rushing touchdown.

Week 2 NFL projections for Baker Mayfield.

His top three weapons carry more upside. In the running game, RB Bucky Irving projects for 62.2 rushing yards plus 18.5 through the air, and leads all Bucs players with a 46.4% chance to score via our touchdown predictions.

Second-year WR Emeka Egbuka (57.3 receiving yards, 33.7% touchdown probability) and veteran WR Chris Godwin (49.2 yards, 28.3% touchdown probability) lead a passing attack that gives Mayfield multiple answers even in a game Tampa Bay is favored to control.

Buccaneers vs. Browns analysis

Dimers' NFL predictions model, which weighs more than 100 data points per matchup, gives Tampa Bay a 75.7% chance to win at home, with Cleveland sitting at 24.3%.

The spread (Buccaneers -7.5) and our projected final score of Buccaneers 24, Browns 16 both point toward a comfortable "homecoming" for Mayfield.

The number that may give Browns fans something to hold on to: at +360, Cleveland offers a slight betting edge at their best available odds according to Dimers' best NFL bets, with a fair price right around +305. But if you're not looking to back the Browns for value, Dimers' data says this one isn't close, and Baker gets his redemption in his second game against the team that drafted him.

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