Etienne OUT, Kamara IN: Dimers model projects 62 scrimmage yards, 38.8% TD chance vs. Falcons

Week 4's NFC South matchup between the Saints and Falcons on Monday Night Football has turned into an Alvin Kamara story, off the back of a hamstring injury to offseason acquisition Travis Etienne Jr., opening the Saints backfield to a committee of longtime Saints veteran Kamara and career backup Kendre Miller.

For Kamara, this game might mean just a little bit more. He posted one of the best all-around seasons of his career in 2024, and since then his production has trended down, a natural arc for an aging running back.

In what may be his final season, this is a chance at one more impact role in a meaningful game.

The veteran's role has been limited this year. Kamara was inactive in Week 1, then in Week 2 he ran 9 times for 15 yards and caught 5 of 6 targets for 7 yards. In Week 3, he carried 9 times for 36 yards for a more efficient game, and caught his lone target for 5 yards.

Not the normal numbers we're used to from one of the all-time great dual-threat running backs.

What the Dimers model says about New Orleans vs. Atlanta

This game has major divisional implications early in the season, as all four teams are under .500, meaning the winner of this game has a shot at sole possession of first place, and with an important in-division win in the bag.

Currently, we give the Saints a 41.5% chance to win the NFC South compared to 19.3% for Atlanta (third-best) based on our NFL division winner predictions.

For Monday Night Football, the Dimers model makes New Orleans a 59% favorite, with Atlanta at 41%.

The Alvin Kamara vs. Kendre Miller debate

On paper and in Dimers' NFL player projections, Kamara looks to inherit the larger role.

The Dimers model projects him for 41 rushing yards and a 38.8% chance to score, ahead of Miller's 27 yards and 25.5% touchdown probability.

Add a projected 21 receiving yards on 3.0 receptions, and Kamara is the clear lead back in our simulations with a respectable 12.8 fantasy point projection in PPR leagues. Not bad for a plug-and-play option.

For Miller, his touchdown equity still gives him greater than a 1-in-4 chance to score, and he's cleared his rushing line in 1 of his 2 appearances serving in an even more limited role.

Kamara looks more likely to lead the Saints in touches, but some inefficient numbers in Week 2 and a lack of explosiveness in the passing game might cap his receiving upside, and that's independent of the difficult matchup on the books for both backs.

Why the matchup isn't a good sign for Kamara

Kamara's opportunity is real, but so is the wall in front of him.

Atlanta has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league and zero rushing touchdowns this season. That number was helped somewhat by a Week 3 matchup with the Packers, whose rushing output is the league's worst so far this season, but it still signals a tough draw.

That's not the only signal, either. Dimers' best NFL player props identify value not only in fading Kamara's rushing line, but also in directly backing Kendre Miller, both to clear his low line of 20.5 rushing yards and as a value play to find the end zone at 25.5%.TD value identified by the Dimers model on Kendre Miller.

This is where Kamara's receiving role could feature more prominently.

He has drawn 7 targets in two games, and a sturdy run defense can push an offense toward short passes to its backs. His 3.0 receptions rank 9th among all RBs this week, and seven of the eight ahead of him are clear lead backs with no committee.

For more player-level reads on the Saints backfield, Dimers' NFL player projections hub is the place to look, and the model's prop value for every matchup sits on Dimers' NFL best props page.

One last chance for Kamara?

Travis Etienne Jr.'s hamstring injury hands Alvin Kamara a larger role in what may be his last season, but he meets the league's stingiest run defense after a quiet start in reserve.

With Kendre Miller factoring in both Weeks 1 and 3, whether Kamara can make a late-career impact may not be entirely up to him and may be purely dependent on volume.

Though the narrative is entertaining, the Dimers model signals little value in backing Kamara, with the data instead finding an edge on his running mate.

Bet on NFL Week 4 with Dimers Pro

Get Dimers' full player projections, touchdown probabilities and best bets for every Week 4 game, including edges on player props for Kamara, Miller and more, with Dimers Pro.