World Cup soccer odds today: Monday's betting cheat sheet [July 6]

After two thrilling matches yesterday, the soccer World Cup 2026 knockout Round of 16 continues with two more sudden death matches on today's World Cup schedule, and this betting odds preview is designed to help you navigate Monday's matches using Dimers' data-driven World Cup predictions on July 6.

Kicking things off today is the match between Spain and Portugal at 3pm, before USA and Belgium face off at 8pm.

Thanks to DraftKings Sportsbook, we've broken down each of Monday's Round of 16 matchups below in our World Cup betting preview, with everything you need to know about the teams, the players, the probabilities, the most likely score lines, as well as the sharpest player props for Monday's two World Cup fixtures.

Today's World Cup 2026 odds - July 6

Dimers' World Cup 2026 odds refer to the Round of 16 forecasts and statistical projections made by our team of data scientists regarding the outcomes of not only the two matches on Monday, July 6, but also the ultimate winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. These predictions for the 2026 World Cup are generated by highly sophisticated machine learning models that analyze historical odds, data sets, player-specific performance metrics, and team-level compositions that delivered some outstanding betting results.

Spain vs. Portugal odds, picks and predictions

Kickoff: July 6, 3pm (ET)

The high-stakes Round of 16 serves up a massive, star-studded Iberian Derby on Monday. Two of Europe's most technical and tactically astute heavyweights collide, with each side looking to build on assertive regular-time performances in the previous stage.

Spain cruised into this marquee matchup by completely dominating Austria in a commanding 3-0 shutout victory during their Round of 32 clash. Portugal matched that clinical intent, showcasing their depth and tournament poise to eliminate a dangerous Croatia squad 2-1 in a nailbiting contest.

Our metrics award La Roja the upper hand to control the tempo, but the razor-thin goal splits point toward a classic, highly balanced chess match. Here is the look at the moneyline percentages, total goals lines, and top exact scores.

Moneyline

The straight-up winner market favors a Spanish victory inside regular time, though Portugal's elite technical quality leaves a combined 49.1% statistical window to force extra time or secure an outright upset:

• Spain to win: 50.9%
• Draw: 24.7%
• Portugal to win: 24.4%

Total goals market (Over/Under 2.5)

Reflecting the world-class defensive shape present on both squads balanced against their explosive attacking depth, the model splits the goal line almost completely in half, showing a microscopic edge toward a lower-scoring affair:

• Under 2.5 goals: 50.1%
• Over 2.5 goals: 49.9%

Most likely exact scores

The exact scoreline distribution underscores a highly competitive Derby where low-scoring draws or narrow single-goal decisions carry the highest statistical probabilities:

• Portugal 1-1 Spain: 11.8%
• Portugal 0-1 Spain: 11.2%
• Portugal 1-2 Spain: 9.6%
• Portugal 0-2 Spain: 9.1%
• Portugal 1-0 Spain: 7.2%

Summary: Spain enters this blockbuster Iberian Derby as a solid 50.9% front-runner. However, because regular-time moneylines carry an inherent tax in a rivalry match of this magnitude and the model flags a 1-1 deadlock as the single most probable regular-time outcome (11.8%), looking at alternative combination markets is your best angle. Given the nearly identical 50.1% / 49.9% split on the goal totals alongside prominent scripts like 1-1 and 1-2, pairing Spain or Draw on the Double Chance market with an alt line of Over 1.5 total match goals builds a highly supported, data-backed path.

USA vs. Belgium odds, picks and predictions

Kickoff: July 6, 8pm (ET)

Next up is the highly anticipated Monday night blockbuster, when the tournament hosts walk out to a roaring, partisan crowd at Lumen Field in Seattle. Both the USA and Belgium enter this high-stakes elimination matchup off highly productive, multi-goal performances in the opening knockout round.

The United States delighted home fans in their Round of 32 clash by comfortably dictating terms in a clean 2-0 victory over Bosnia and Herzegovina. Belgium, meanwhile, had to fight through an absolute roller coaster, showcasing their clinical depth to outlast a relentless Senegal squad in a thrilling 3-2 regular-time victory.

The projections establish this match as a complete statistical dead heat, predicting a highly competitive, end-to-end environment on the Seattle turf. Here is the direct look at the moneyline percentages, total goals expectations, and top exact scores.

Moneyline

The straight-up winner market reveals a razor-thin split, giving Belgium the slighest edge in regulation time, while a regular-time draw carries significant weight:

• Belgium to win: 38.8%
• United States to win: 37.1%
• Draw: 24.1%

Total goals market (Over/Under 2.5)

Reflecting Belgium's explosive attacking form combined with the United States' ability to strike in transition on home soil, the model heavily leans toward an open encounter that clears the standard benchmark:

• Over 2.5 goals: 58.6%
• Under 2.5 goals: 41.4%

Most Likely Exact Scores

The exact scoreline distribution underscores a dynamic affair where scorelines featuring goals for both sides dominate individual mathematical expectations:

• United States 1-1 Belgium: 11.1%
• United States 1-2 Belgium: 8.5%
• United States 2-1 Belgium: 8.3%
• United States 0-1 Belgium: 7.4%
• United States 1-0 Belgium: 7.2%

Summary: With the moneyline split essentially divided down the middle, separating these sides in regular time carries massive risk. However, the model signals immense clarity in the goal markets, assigning a strong 58.6% confidence in Over 2.5 total match goals. Given that the top three projected outcomes all feature both teams finding the back of the net, backing Both Teams to Score (BTTS) or taking Over 2.5 total match goals builds a highly supported, data-backed angle for this primetime battle in Seattle.