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Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, odds, La Liga picks [3/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid predictions for La Liga Sunday.
Real Madrid will face Atletico Madrid in La Liga action on Sunday, beginning at 4:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced La Liga model predicts Real Madrid as the most likely winner of the Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid game.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's La Liga match between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid 10,000 times as part of our La Liga predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently suggests a 47.8% chance of Real Madrid winning, a 28.6% chance for Atletico Madrid, and a 23.7% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 58% chance of going over, according to our model.
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid odds
We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Real Madrid | Atletico Madrid | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -105 | +260 | +280 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -175 | +142 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atletico Madrid | +260 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | +142 |
According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| MAD 1-1 ATM | 11% |
| MAD 2-1 ATM | 9.4% |
| MAD 1-0 ATM | 8.6% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 59.3% chance of both sides finding the net and a 40.7% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's La Liga game between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid is scheduled to start in the United States at 4:00 PM ET.
- Who: Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid
- Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026
- Time: 4:00 PM ET/1:00PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Real Madrid has a 47.8% win probability on Sunday, Atletico Madrid has a 28.6% win probability, and there is a 23.7% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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