Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid La Liga match on March 22, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
Atletico Madrid
2
3
Real Madrid
Real MadridRMA
Score Summary
Atletico MadridATM
Vinicius Junior (pen.) (52')
Soccer ball icon
F. Valverde (55')
Soccer ball icon
Vinicius Junior (72')
Soccer ball icon
F. Valverde (77')
Red Card icon
A. Lookman (33')
Soccer ball icon
N. Molina (66')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Real Madrid
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Atletico Madrid
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 87'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: A. Carreras replaces Vinicius Junior
  2. 77'
    Red Card
    F. Valverde (Real Madrid) sent off with a straight red card
  3. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: J. Bellingham replaces A. Guler
  4. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: E. Camavinga replaces B. Diaz
  5. 72'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by Vinicius Junior, assisted by T. Alexander-Arnold
    2-3
  6. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: A. Baena replaces G. Simeone
  7. 68'
    Yellow Card
    M. Llorente (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  8. 66'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by N. Molina, assisted by J. Alvarez
    2-2
  9. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: K. Mbappe replaces T. Pitarch
  10. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: T. Alexander-Arnold replaces D. Carvajal
  11. 63'
    Yellow Card
    T. Pitarch (Real Madrid) cautioned
  12. 61'
    Yellow Card
    D. Hancko (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  13. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: A. Sorloth replaces A. Griezmann
  14. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: N. Gonzalez replaces J. Cardoso
  15. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: N. Molina replaces A. Lookman
  16. 55'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by F. Valverde
    1-2
  17. 52'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by Vinicius Junior (pen.)
    1-1
  18. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: J. M. Gimenez replaces R. Le Normand
  19. 36'
    Yellow Card
    M. Ruggeri (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  20. 33'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by A. Lookman, assisted by G. Simeone
    1-0
  21. 27'
    Yellow Card
    J. Cardoso (Atl. Madrid) cautioned

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid
  • Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026
  • Time: 4:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Real Madrid +105, Atletico Madrid +240, draw +290
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-163/+142)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Real Madrid: 47.4%
  • Atletico Madrid: 28.8%
  • Draw: 23.8%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid (11.0%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid? Prediction & correct score

Real Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 47.4%.

The most likely correct score is Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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