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Newcastle Knights vs. North QLD Cowboys prediction: Cowboys favored to win Saturday's NRL Round 1 matchup [2/28/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Newcastle Knights vs North QLD Cowboys predictions for NRL Saturday.
The Newcastle Knights and North QLD Cowboys are scheduled to meet in the National Rugby League (NRL) at Allegiant Stadium on Saturday, starting at 9:15 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NRL model predicts the Cowboys as the most likely winner of the Cowboys vs. Knights game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Knights vs. Cowboys prediction: Who will win Round 1 game?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NRL matchup between the Cowboys and Knights 10,000 times as part of our NRL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Cowboys a 67% chance of defeating the Knights.
According to our model, the Cowboys (-3.5) have a 59% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 42.5 has a 59% chance of going over.
Cowboys vs. Knights odds
We have sourced the best NRL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cowboys | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -156 | +123 |
| Line (Spread) | -3.5 (-120) | +3.5 (-105) |
| Total | o42.5 (-115) | u42.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cowboys -3.5 | -120 |
| Moneyline | Cowboys | bet_rivers_in-156 |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -115 |
According to our NRL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Cowboys to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Knights vs. Cowboys game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rugby league matchup between the Knights and Cowboys at Allegiant Stadium is scheduled to commence at 9:15 PM ET.
- Who: North QLD Cowboys vs. Newcastle Knights
- Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
- Time: 9:15 PM ET/6:15PM PT
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium
The NRL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with there even being games played in Vegas each season as of 2024.
Conclusion
We predict the Cowboys, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat the Knights on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Cowboys vs. Knights insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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