New Zealand Warriors vs. Newcastle Knights prediction: Why Warriors are favored to win Sunday's NRL Round 29 matchup [9/20/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NRL game between the Knights and Warriors, forming part of our NRL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Warriors a 72.0% chance of defeating the Knights. According to our model, the Warriors (-6.5) have a 55.8% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 44.5 points has a 53.5% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NRL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Knights +180, Warriors -233
• Total: Over/Under 44.5 (-110/-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Warriors -6.5 @ -105 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Warriors @ -233 via BetRivers
• Total: Over 44.5 @ -110 via BetRivers

According to our NRL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Warriors -6.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Sunday's Australian rugby league game between the Warriors and Knights at Go Media Stadium is scheduled to start at 2:05 AM ET.

• Who: Newcastle Knights vs. New Zealand Warriors
• Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
• Time: 2:05 AM ET/11:05PM PT
• Venue: Go Media Stadium

The NRL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with there even being games played in Vegas each season as of 2024.

Conclusion

We predict the Warriors, with a 72.0% win probability, will likely beat the Knights in Sunday's NRL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NRL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.