NHL Futures: Dimers Model Spots Early 2026 Stanley Cup Value

After another week of elite predictive performances - including Arsenal’s exact 2 - 0 win over West Ham, followed by Wolves' 1 - 1 draw with Brighton, both WNBA Finals teams (Aces and Mercury) called months ago, and MLB futures like the Blue Jays +1300 cashing in - the team at Dimers is shifting focus to the ice.

It’s time to look ahead to this NHL season and, once again, our machine learning models are uncovering value the sports betting sites are missing.

How the Dimers NHL Futures Model Works

Our NHL Futures model simulates the season thousands of times, running through every possible outcome based on real-world data - roster strength, expected goals, goaltending metrics, special teams efficiency, and schedule dynamics.

The goal? To uncover true probabilities - the actual likelihood of each team lifting the Stanley Cup - and compare them against the implied probabilities in the betting market.

When those two numbers don’t line up, Dimers Pro finds value. And this year, a few teams stand out.

The 2026 Stanley Cup Favorites

At the top of the model sit a few familiar names.

The Florida Panthers (6.8%) lead the way after their successful back-to-back Cup runs, followed closely by the Colorado Avalanche (6.6%), Vegas Golden Knights (6.3%), Carolina Hurricanes (6.2%), and Edmonton Oilers (6.2%).

That group forms the league’s elite tier - and while their prices are generally efficient, there’s plenty of room below them for value plays early in the season.

NHL Futures Value Bets for the 2026 Stanley Cup

Vegas Golden Knights (6.3% chance)

Best Odds: +1000 (FanDuel)

Though not a value play based on probability, the Vegas Golden Knights stand out when compared to the rest of the top contenders.

With more than five teams projected between 6.1 and 6.8% to win the Stanley Cup, Vegas remains right in the thick of it. Our simulations give the Golden Knights a 6.3% shot at the 2026 Cup, but their +1000 odds are better than every other team in their range.

That means the price is fair by comparison, but this team’s consistency - elite goaltending, proven postseason pedigree, and offensive balance - makes them a strong anchor for any futures ticket.

The addition of Mitch Marner alongside Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev improves their scoring upside as they aim to improve on last year's second-round exit.

Tampa Bay Lightning (6.0% chance)

Best Odds: +1400 (FanDuel)

It feels like Tampa Bay’s dynasty era has passed, but don’t let that narrative fool you. Dimers’ data suggests they still have life left - if they can finally get past their in-state rival, the Florida Panthers.

The Lightning check in with a 6.0% chance to win the Cup, making their +1400 price slightly generous compared to market expectations. Their playoff experience and scoring depth led by their elite top line of Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov continue to give them a higher ceiling than most books are crediting.

At +1400, they’re a value play hiding in plain sight among many other shorter priced teams.

NHL Longshot Bet for the 2026 Stanley Cup

Winnipeg Jets (5.0% chance)

Best Odds: +2500 (BetRivers)

Here’s where the model really lights up.

The Jets’ true probability of 5.0% to win the Stanley Cup translates to fair odds of around +1900.

But BetRivers currently lists them at +2500 (implying just a 3.85% chance).

That gap between true probability (5.0%) and implied probability (3.85%) represents one of the biggest value edges on the board.

Winnipeg’s underlying numbers support it too. The Jets boast one of the league’s strongest defensive structures, top-tier goaltending with last year's Vezina Trophy Winner, Connor Hellebuyck, and improving 5-on-5 play - all ingredients for an overachieving team.

If you’re looking for a long shot with real statistical upside, the Jets are the early-season bet to make.

Predictive Analytics Models Backed by Advanced Data

These NHL bets aren’t coming out of thin air. Dimers’ predictive analytics have been on fire across multiple sports:

• ⚽️ Arsenal 2 - 0 over West Ham - exact scoreline correctly predicted
• ⚽️ Wolves 1 - 1 Brighton - exact scoreline correctly predicted
• 🏀 Aces vs. Mercury - both WNBA Finals teams identified months ago
• ⚾️ Blue Jays +1300 to win the AL East - cashed

It’s not luck - it’s the product of a world-class machine learning engine built by the Dimers data science team, powering Dimers Pro and predictive models across every major league.

Final Word: You Can Trust Dimers Data

With the 2026 NHL season on the horizon, market inefficiencies are everywhere - and early bettors can still capitalize.

• Las Vegas Golden Knights are the standard: steady and proven.
• Tampa Bay Lightning bring pedigree at a price that underrates them.
• Winnipeg Jets? That’s where the value is hiding in plain sight. Our model says +1900 would be fair, yet BetRivers is giving us +2500.

Don’t wait for the market to catch up.

Dimers’ NHL Futures Value Pick

Winnipeg Jets +2500 to win the 2026 Stanley Cup