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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, March 31, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/31.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, March 31, 2026—are live with the Lakers' Luka Doncic projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Doncic, Kawhi Leonard and LaMelo Ball lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 31, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 17.3% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 16.3% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 14.3% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 13.3% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 13.3% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.1% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 13.0% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 12.9% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 12.9% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.7% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 12.6% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 12.6% |
| Ziaire Williams | Nets | 12.3% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 12.1% |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 11.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 31, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 1.9% | +550 | 17.3% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 0.8% | +700 | 13.3% |
| Scoot Henderson | Trail Blazers | 0.5% | +900 | 10.5% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 0.5% | +850 | 11.0% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 0.4% | +700 | 12.9% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 0.4% | +700 | 12.9% |
| Donovan Clingan | Trail Blazers | 0.2% | +850 | 10.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/31.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, March 31, 2026, Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard and LaMelo Ball lead our first basket projections, with Doncic shaping as the strongest value play at +550. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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