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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, March 17, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/17.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, March 17, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Devin Booker and Giannis Antetokounmpo lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 17, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.1% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 15.7% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 15.4% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.8% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 14.5% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 14.3% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 14.0% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 13.6% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 13.3% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 13.2% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.1% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.0% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 12.9% |
| Justin Edwards | 76ers | 12.5% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 12.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 17, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 3.7% | +1300 | 10.9% |
| Justin Edwards | 76ers | 2.9% | +950 | 12.5% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 1.4% | +600 | 15.7% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 1.4% | +900 | 11.4% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 0.9% | +650 | 14.3% |
| Quentin Grimes | 76ers | 0.7% | +850 | 11.2% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 0.7% | +550 | 16.1% |
| Ajay Mitchell | Thunder | 0.6% | +800 | 11.8% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 0.4% | +800 | 11.5% |
| Andrew Nembhard | Pacers | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 0.1% | +750 | 11.9% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 0.1% | +750 | 11.8% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 0.1% | +550 | 15.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/17.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, March 17, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Devin Booker and Giannis Antetokounmpo lead our first basket projections, while Kyle Kuzma shapes as the strongest value play at +1300. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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