...
...
Read Article
NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/10.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, March 10, 2026—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Anthony Edwards and Jalen Duren lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 10, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 17.5% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 16.8% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 16.6% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 15.7% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.6% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 15.5% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.9% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 13.8% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 13.7% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.7% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.2% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 13.1% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 13.0% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 12.9% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 10, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 3.2% | +700 | 15.7% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 3.1% | +1000 | 12.2% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 2.5% | +600 | 16.8% |
| Bilal Coulibaly | Wizards | 2.3% | +950 | 11.8% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 2.1% | +550 | 17.5% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 2.0% | +900 | 12.0% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 1.4% | +700 | 13.9% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 1.4% | +900 | 11.4% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 1.2% | +750 | 13.0% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 1.2% | +700 | 13.7% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 1.1% | +750 | 12.9% |
| Jarace Walker | Pacers | 0.2% | +750 | 12.0% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 0.1% | +750 | 11.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/10.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, March 10, 2026, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Edwards and Jalen Duren lead our first basket projections, while Cooper Flagg shapes as the strongest value play at +700. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure