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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/27.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, January 27, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Kawhi Leonard and Jamal Murray lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 27, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 19.8% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.6% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 15.0% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 14.8% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 14.6% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.4% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.5% |
| Jonas Valanciunas | Nuggets | 13.2% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 12.7% |
| Domantas Sabonis | Kings | 12.5% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 12.5% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 12.4% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 12.4% |
| Grayson Allen | Suns | 12.3% |
| Myles Turner | Bucks | 12.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 27, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Turner | Bucks | 3.1% | +1000 | 12.2% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 2.9% | +950 | 12.4% |
| Kyshawn George | Wizards | 2.4% | +1000 | 11.5% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 2.3% | +950 | 11.8% |
| Jonas Valanciunas | Nuggets | 2.1% | +800 | 13.2% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 1.8% | +750 | 13.5% |
| John Collins | Clippers | 1.6% | +950 | 11.1% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 1.6% | +800 | 12.7% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 1.4% | +1000 | 10.5% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 1.1% | +850 | 11.6% |
| Domantas Sabonis | Kings | 0.8% | +750 | 12.5% |
| Isaiah Collier | Jazz | 0.7% | +1000 | 9.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/27.
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Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, January 27, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kawhi Leonard and Jamal Murray lead our first basket projections, while Myles Turner shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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