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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, March 26, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/26.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, March 26, 2026—are live with the Pistons' Jalen Duren projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Duren, LaMelo Ball and Karl-Anthony Towns lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 26, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 15.4% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 14.8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 13.7% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 12.4% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 12.2% |
| Dejounte Murray | Pelicans | 11.9% |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 11.9% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 11.1% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 11.1% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 10.8% |
| Kon Knueppel | Hornets | 10.4% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 10.3% |
| Malik Monk | Kings | 10.3% |
| OG Anunoby | Knicks | 10.2% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 10.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 26, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 0.4% | +750 | 12.2% |
| Malik Monk | Kings | 0.3% | +900 | 10.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/26.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, March 26, 2026, Jalen Duren, LaMelo Ball and Karl-Anthony Towns lead our first basket projections, while Maxime Raynaud shapes as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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