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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, March 12, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/12.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, March 12, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Duren and Bam Adebayo lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 12, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.2% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 15.6% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 15.5% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 15.3% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 15.2% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 15.0% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 15.0% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.6% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.1% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.7% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 13.6% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 13.5% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 13.4% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.4% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 13.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 12, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 3.7% | +1100 | 12.1% |
| Andrew Nembhard | Pacers | 2.6% | +950 | 12.1% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 2.5% | +700 | 15.0% |
| Derrick White | Celtics | 1.9% | +1000 | 11.0% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 1.6% | +750 | 13.4% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 1.4% | +800 | 12.5% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 1.4% | +600 | 15.6% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 1.3% | +1000 | 10.4% |
| Jarace Walker | Pacers | 1.2% | +1000 | 10.3% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 1.2% | +800 | 12.3% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 1.1% | +600 | 15.3% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 0.4% | +900 | 10.4% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 0.2% | +700 | 12.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/12.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, March 12, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Duren and Bam Adebayo lead our first basket projections, while Tre Jones shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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