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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, February 26, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/26.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, February 26, 2026—are live with the Timberwolves' Anthony Edwards projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Edwards, Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 26, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.1% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 14.9% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.6% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.4% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 14.4% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 13.6% |
| Kyle Filipowski | Jazz | 13.4% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 13.3% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 13.2% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.0% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 13.0% |
| Tristan Vukcevic | Wizards | 13.0% |
| Isaiah Collier | Jazz | 12.5% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 12.4% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 12.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 26, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 3.1% | +850 | 13.6% |
| Tristan Vukcevic | Wizards | 3.0% | +900 | 13.0% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 2.2% | +800 | 13.3% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 1.5% | +750 | 13.2% |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | 1.1% | +900 | 11.1% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 0.4% | +600 | 14.6% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 0.1% | +600 | 14.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/26.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, February 26, 2026, Anthony Edwards, Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic lead our first basket projections, while Matas Buzelis shapes as the strongest value play at +850. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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