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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, December 21, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/21.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, December 21, 2025—are live with the Timberwolves' Anthony Edwards projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Edwards, CJ McCollum and Alperen Sengun lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 21, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.4% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 14.4% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.9% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 13.3% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 13.3% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 12.8% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.8% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 12.2% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 11.8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 11.6% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 11.4% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 10.8% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 10.6% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 10.4% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 10.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 21, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 2.3% | +950 | 11.8% |
| Myles Turner | Bucks | 1.0% | +1100 | 9.3% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 0.9% | +1000 | 10.0% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 0.8% | +700 | 13.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/21.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, December 21, 2025, Anthony Edwards, CJ McCollum and Alperen Sengun lead our first basket projections, while Maxime Raynaud shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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