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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, December 21, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/21.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, December 21, 2025—are live with the Wizards' Alex Sarr projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Sarr, CJ McCollum and Anthony Edwards lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 21, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 14.7% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 14.4% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.4% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.9% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 13.3% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 13.0% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 12.8% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.8% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 12.2% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 12.2% |
| Coby White | Bulls | 12.2% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 11.8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 11.6% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 11.3% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 11.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 21, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby White | Bulls | 2.2% | +900 | 12.2% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 1.4% | +700 | 13.9% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 1.3% | +850 | 11.8% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 0.3% | +1000 | 9.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/21.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, December 21, 2025, Alex Sarr, CJ McCollum and Anthony Edwards lead our first basket projections, while Coby White shapes as the strongest value play at +900. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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