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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, December 14, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/14.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, December 14, 2025—are live with the Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Mitchell, Stephen Curry and Pascal Siakam lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 14, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 17.7% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 16.2% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 15.8% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.3% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 15.2% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 15.0% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.3% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 13.8% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 13.1% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 12.4% |
| Miles Bridges | Hornets | 12.3% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 12.2% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 12.0% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 11.9% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 11.5% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 14, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 4.6% | +1400 | 11.3% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 2.6% | +800 | 13.8% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 1.3% | +750 | 13.1% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 0.8% | +550 | 16.2% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 0.8% | +1000 | 9.9% |
| Mark Williams | Suns | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 0.2% | +750 | 11.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/14.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, December 14, 2025, Donovan Mitchell, Stephen Curry and Pascal Siakam lead our first basket projections, while Maxime Raynaud shapes as the strongest value play at +1400. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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