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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, March 15, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/15.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, March 15, 2026—are live with the Jazz' Brice Sensabaugh projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Sensabaugh, Karl-Anthony Towns and Jrue Holiday lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 15, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 14.9% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 13.1% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 12.8% |
| Isaiah Collier | Jazz | 12.8% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 12.4% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 12.4% |
| Brandin Podziemski | Warriors | 12.2% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 12.0% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 11.5% |
| Quentin Grimes | 76ers | 11.4% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 11.4% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 11.4% |
| Justin Edwards | 76ers | 11.0% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 10.6% |
| Jerami Grant | Trail Blazers | 10.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 15, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Edwards | 76ers | 1.9% | +1000 | 10.9% |
| Isaiah Collier | Jazz | 1.7% | +800 | 12.8% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 1.6% | +650 | 14.9% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 0.9% | +800 | 12.0% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 0.9% | +850 | 11.4% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 0.4% | +700 | 12.9% |
| Quentin Grimes | 76ers | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/15.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, March 15, 2026, Brice Sensabaugh, Karl-Anthony Towns and Jrue Holiday lead our first basket projections, while Justin Edwards shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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