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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, March 15, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/15.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, March 15, 2026—are live with the Timberwolves' Anthony Edwards projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Edwards, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 15, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 16.4% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 15.9% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.9% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 15.6% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 14.9% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 14.1% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 13.7% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 13.2% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 13.1% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 12.8% |
| Isaiah Collier | Jazz | 12.8% |
| Ivica Zubac | Pacers | 12.6% |
| Brandin Podziemski | Warriors | 12.2% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 12.2% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 12.0% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 15, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 3.9% | +750 | 15.6% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 3.5% | +850 | 14.1% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 1.9% | +1000 | 11.0% |
| Isaiah Collier | Jazz | 1.7% | +800 | 12.8% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 1.6% | +650 | 14.9% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 1.2% | +1000 | 10.3% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 1.1% | +750 | 12.9% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 1.1% | +800 | 12.2% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 1.1% | +550 | 16.4% |
| Justin Edwards | 76ers | 0.9% | +900 | 10.9% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 0.9% | +800 | 12.0% |
| Quentin Grimes | 76ers | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/15.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, March 15, 2026, Anthony Edwards, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead our first basket projections, while Jalen Duren shapes as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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