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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, March 14, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/14.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, March 14, 2026—are live with the Lakers' Luka Doncic projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Doncic, Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Jokic lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 14, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.6% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.0% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.7% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.9% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.3% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 12.7% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 12.6% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 12.5% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 12.3% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 12.2% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 12.2% |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 11.9% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 11.2% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 11.2% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 11.0% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 14, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 2.1% | +1000 | 11.2% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 1.7% | +850 | 12.2% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 1.3% | +650 | 14.7% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 1.3% | +1000 | 10.4% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 1.0% | +900 | 11.0% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 0.8% | +750 | 12.6% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 0.8% | +700 | 13.3% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 0.6% | +650 | 13.9% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 0.6% | +750 | 12.3% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 0.1% | +800 | 11.2% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/14.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, March 14, 2026, Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Jokic lead our first basket projections, while Russell Westbrook shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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