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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, March 14, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/14.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, March 14, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 14, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.8% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.6% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 14.8% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.7% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.9% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.4% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.3% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 13.2% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 12.7% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 12.7% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 12.6% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 12.6% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 12.6% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 12.4% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 12.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 14, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 3.2% | +1100 | 11.5% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 1.9% | +1000 | 11.0% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 1.3% | +1000 | 10.4% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 1.1% | +800 | 12.2% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 0.8% | +700 | 13.3% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 0.7% | +850 | 11.2% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 0.6% | +650 | 13.9% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 0.6% | +750 | 12.3% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 0.4% | +550 | 15.8% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 0.4% | +600 | 14.7% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 0.1% | +700 | 12.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/14.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, March 14, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo lead our first basket projections, while Kyle Kuzma shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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