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Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, March 30, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/30.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, March 30, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylen Brown and Victor Wembanyama lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 30, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 17.9% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 15.9% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 15.5% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 15.1% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 14.5% |
| Paul Reed | Pistons | 13.9% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 13.7% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 13.5% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 13.2% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 12.7% |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | 12.7% |
| Luka Garza | Celtics | 12.6% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 12.5% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 12.5% |
| Cedric Coward | Grizzlies | 12.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 30, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Garza | Celtics | 3.5% | +1000 | 12.6% |
| Paul Reed | Pistons | 2.8% | +800 | 13.9% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 1.7% | +1000 | 10.8% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 1.6% | +1100 | 10.0% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 1.6% | +900 | 11.6% |
| Kevin Huerter | Pistons | 1.6% | +1100 | 9.9% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 1.3% | +1000 | 10.4% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 1.2% | +850 | 11.8% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 1.2% | +500 | 17.9% |
| Bilal Coulibaly | Wizards | 0.7% | +1000 | 9.8% |
| Cedric Coward | Grizzlies | 0.7% | +750 | 12.4% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 0.6% | +800 | 11.7% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 0.0% | +750 | 11.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/30.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, March 30, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylen Brown and Victor Wembanyama lead our first basket projections, while Luka Garza shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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