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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, December 19, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/19.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, December 19, 2025—are live with the Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jaylen Brown lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 19, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 16.3% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.1% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.7% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 13.2% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 13.1% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 12.8% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 12.7% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 12.2% |
| Coby White | Bulls | 12.1% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 11.7% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 11.4% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 11.0% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 10.8% |
| Josh Giddey | Bulls | 10.7% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 10.5% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 19, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby White | Bulls | 3.8% | +1100 | 12.1% |
| Derrick White | Celtics | 1.4% | +1100 | 9.8% |
| Josh Giddey | Bulls | 1.2% | +950 | 10.7% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 1.1% | +850 | 11.7% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 0.8% | +600 | 15.1% |
| Rudy Gobert | Timberwolves | 0.8% | +1100 | 9.2% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 0.6% | +700 | 13.1% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 0.3% | +700 | 12.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/19.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, December 19, 2025, Donovan Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jaylen Brown lead our first basket projections, while Coby White shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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