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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, March 13, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/13.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, March 13, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Anthony Edwards and Jalen Duren lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 13, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 18.1% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 17.0% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 16.2% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 14.9% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 14.6% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 13.7% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 13.7% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 13.5% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 13.0% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 12.9% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 12.8% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 12.7% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 12.7% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 12.7% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.5% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 13, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 5.0% | +1200 | 12.7% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 3.2% | +950 | 12.7% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 2.5% | +800 | 13.7% |
| Andrew Nembhard | Pacers | 2.5% | +950 | 12.1% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 2.4% | +800 | 13.5% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 2.3% | +850 | 12.9% |
| Isaiah Collier | Jazz | 2.3% | +1000 | 11.4% |
| Ivica Zubac | Pacers | 1.9% | +1000 | 11.0% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 1.9% | +1100 | 10.2% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 1.7% | +850 | 12.2% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 1.2% | +490 | 18.1% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 0.4% | +650 | 13.7% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 0.4% | +500 | 17.0% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 0.3% | +600 | 14.6% |
| Josh Giddey | Bulls | 0.1% | +800 | 11.2% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 0.0% | +700 | 12.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/13.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, March 13, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Edwards and Jalen Duren lead our first basket projections, while Tre Jones shapes as the strongest value play at +1200. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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