MLB Props: Three home run hitters to parlay today, Saturday, April 11

Every MLB team is in action for the MLB betting slate on Saturday, April 11, each with the best bets, MLB player props, and home run predictions with the Dimers model. Utilizing our retooled MLB props model for 2026, we're looking for the hitters to back for a home run today, which can be boosted by 30% in a home on parlay on FanDuel.

All season long, you'll find these player prop insights in the Dimers App, the ultimate companion tool for Dimers Pro users. If you don't have Dimers Pro, you can sign up in the App today and get a three-day free trial.

MLB home run parlay bet today, Saturday, April 11

If you've been paying attention to the MLB season, you know that home runs are down to start the year, due to a combination of cold weather, pitcher tendencies, and even unknown factors through the early weeks.

That's why utilizing the various Dimers Pro MLB insights to identify the players with the best chance to go yard is so crucial.

Combining our hitter and pitcher projections with our MLB player prop tool and even our early-season MLB trends is an ideal way to narrow down a full slate of players to a handful of top targets who can defy the early-season trends.

1. Jo Adell (Angels) to hit a home run (+340)

Game: Angels vs. Reds

Time: 4:10 PM ET

In the earliest game we're targeting, our sights are set on Jo Adell, who gets an 18.8% home run probability from the Dimers model, the 7th-highest on the day.

Adell has 1 HR so far this season, hitting the ball well with more contact than power so far. He may not hit 37 home runs again like last year, but his jump from 20 to 37 over the past two seasons suggests it wasn't a fluke.

His matchup today could be one that starts a run for him, as he's a notably better hitter vs. lefthanded pitchers, and generates more power. He'll face off with Reds lefty starter Brandon Williamson, who's allowed 3 HR through two starts, two of which were "no-doubters" gone in every park, and ranks in the bottom of MLB in Barrel % and expected slugging.

We project Williamson for over 3 earned runs

2. Rafael Devers (Giants) to hit a home run (+410)

Game: Giants vs. Orioles

Time: 7:15 PM ET

We move to the night slate in one of the best parks for home runs in baseball, Camden Yards when the Giants take on the Orioles.

Rafael Devers has a pair of home runs in his second season with San Francisco, and he'd have 3 of them this year adjusted for Camden Yards. He also gets one of his favorite historical matchups against Chris Basstit tonight, getting our highest probability in the whole game at 14.0%.

Devers is 10 for 20 with 3 HR and a 1.600 OPS in his career vs. Bassitt, consistent production against a familiar opponent from his time in the AL East.

Bassitt has been smacked around by lefties, giving up the majority of home runs against that side (13 of 21 in 2025, 14 of 18 in 2024, 21 of 28 in 2023). Devers also crushes righties in general, and strong numbers over the past three seasons vs. Bassitt's primary pitch mix of sinker/cutter/curve vs. LHB.

Rafael Devers' player card as seen in the Dimers App.

3. Corey Seager (Rangers) to hit a home run (+340)

Game: Rangers vs. Dodgers

Time: 9:10 PM ET

For our last HR pick, we'll go to the late-night slate on the West Coast and our old friend Corey Seager against his former team, the Dodgers, with a 13.4% home run chance tonight, tied for highest on the Rangers with Jake Burger.

Seager's off to a very good start this year with 4 HR through just 29 at-bats, all off righties,  hitting one last night in a narrow 8-7 loss. His home runs have been tanks, all at least 392 feet, and it looks like he's well on his way to a course-correction after last year's four-season low, also his first under 30 HR in four years (all with the Rangers).

Tonight, he faces the Dodgers Emmett Sheehan, who's given up a HR in each of his two starts so far, both to lefties like Seager who has hit Sheehan's pitch mix of 4-seam/slider/changeup extremely well over the past three years.

Weather should have a minimal impact, but light winds blowing out could help our home run case for Seager even more.

MLB home run parlay and round robin at +9773 odds

For a bigger payout at a higher risk, you can bet these home run props as a parlay at total odds of +9773 on FanDuel Sportsbook, where they have a 30% boost you can apply to any 3+ leg home run parlay, which would raise these odds to +12705, returning $635.29 off a $5 bet.

Alternatively, you can play a round robin with combinations of x2 and x3, so even if just two players go yard, you leave with a little profit.

Dimers' MLB betting resources for the 2026 season

• MLB Game Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every MLB game, every day.
• MLB Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game.
• World Series Odds: Who will win it all?
• Best MLB Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• MLB Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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