MLB Props: Three home run hitters to parlay today, Saturday, April 11

1. Jo Adell (Angels) to hit a home run (+340)

Game: Angels vs. Reds

Time: 4:10 PM ET

In the earliest game we're targeting, our sights are set on Jo Adell, who gets an 18.8% home run probability from the Dimers model, the 7th-highest on the day.

Adell has 1 HR so far this season, hitting the ball well with more contact than power so far. He may not hit 37 home runs again like last year, but his jump from 20 to 37 over the past two seasons suggests it wasn't a fluke.

His matchup today could be one that starts a run for him, as he's a notably better hitter vs. lefthanded pitchers, and generates more power. He'll face off with Reds lefty starter Brandon Williamson, who's allowed 3 HR through two starts, two of which were "no-doubters" gone in every park, and ranks in the bottom of MLB in Barrel % and expected slugging.

We project Williamson for over 3 earned runs

2. Rafael Devers (Giants) to hit a home run (+410)

Game: Giants vs. Orioles

Time: 7:15 PM ET

We move to the night slate in one of the best parks for home runs in baseball, Camden Yards when the Giants take on the Orioles.

Rafael Devers has a pair of home runs in his second season with San Francisco, and he'd have 3 of them this year adjusted for Camden Yards. He also gets one of his favorite historical matchups against Chris Basstit tonight, getting our highest probability in the whole game at 14.0%.

Devers is 10 for 20 with 3 HR and a 1.600 OPS in his career vs. Bassitt, consistent production against a familiar opponent from his time in the AL East.

Bassitt has been smacked around by lefties, giving up the majority of home runs against that side (13 of 21 in 2025, 14 of 18 in 2024, 21 of 28 in 2023). Devers also crushes righties in general, and strong numbers over the past three seasons vs. Bassitt's primary pitch mix of sinker/cutter/curve vs. LHB.

Rafael Devers' player card as seen in the Dimers App.

3. Corey Seager (Rangers) to hit a home run (+340)

Game: Rangers vs. Dodgers

Time: 9:10 PM ET

For our last HR pick, we'll go to the late-night slate on the West Coast and our old friend Corey Seager against his former team, the Dodgers, with a 13.4% home run chance tonight, tied for highest on the Rangers with Jake Burger.

Seager's off to a very good start this year with 4 HR through just 29 at-bats, all off righties,  hitting one last night in a narrow 8-7 loss. His home runs have been tanks, all at least 392 feet, and it looks like he's well on his way to a course-correction after last year's four-season low, also his first under 30 HR in four years (all with the Rangers).

Tonight, he faces the Dodgers Emmett Sheehan, who's given up a HR in each of his two starts so far, both to lefties like Seager who has hit Sheehan's pitch mix of 4-seam/slider/changeup extremely well over the past three years.

Weather should have a minimal impact, but light winds blowing out could help our home run case for Seager even more.

MLB home run parlay and round robin at +9773 odds

For a bigger payout at a higher risk, you can bet these home run props as a parlay at total odds of +9773 on FanDuel Sportsbook, where they have a 30% boost you can apply to any 3+ leg home run parlay, which would raise these odds to +12705, returning $635.29 off a $5 bet.

Alternatively, you can play a round robin with combinations of x2 and x3, so even if just two players go yard, you leave with a little profit.

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