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Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Wednesday has +550 odds [5/13/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Wednesday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, May 13, 2026, feature Nick Kurtz as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Wednesday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for May 13, 2026
See which hitters join Kurtz on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +550.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 24.3% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 22.2% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 22.1% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 21.3% |
| Brent Rooker (Athletics) | 20.8% |
| Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) | 18.6% |
| JJ Bleday (Reds) | 18.2% |
| Byron Buxton (Twins) | 17.8% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 17.5% |
| Elly De La Cruz (Reds) | 16.8% |
Our analysis shows Kurtz leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.3% chance to go deep, followed by Shea Langeliers (22.2%) and Aaron Judge (22.1%).
Cal Raleigh and Brent Rooker are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Wednesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Wednesday's home run picks [5/13/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, reveals today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) to hit a home run
- Probability: 18.6%
- Odds: bet_rivers_in+550
- Edge: 3.2%
- Game: Cardinals vs. Athletics (9:40 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Matthew Liberatore
Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, St. Louis slugger Tyler Soderstrom rates as a value play at +550 with bet_rivers_in, showing a 3.2% edge.
Against Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore, the data supports Soderstrom as one of Wednesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of seven home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 13, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers and Aaron Judge projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Tyler Soderstrom who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.2% edge at +550 odds.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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