Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Dinger Tuesday has +575 odds [6/30/2026]
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Tuesday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, June 30, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Tuesday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, built to highlight the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for June 30, 2026
See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — plus a value pick the model rates as value at +575.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 26.5% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 22.9% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 22.1% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 20.2% |
| Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) | 19.6% |
| Kyle Stowers (Marlins) | 19.3% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 19.1% |
| Michael Busch (Cubs) | 19.0% |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) | 18.9% |
| Samuel Basallo (Orioles) | 18.5% |
Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 26.5% chance to go yard, followed by Kyle Schwarber (22.9%) and Pete Alonso (22.1%).
Nick Kurtz and Kyle Tucker are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Tuesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Tuesday's home run picks [6/30/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
Taylor Ward (Orioles) to hit a home run
- Probability: 17.5%
- Odds: +575
- Edge: 2.7%
- Game: White Sox vs. Orioles (6:35 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Erick Fedde
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Baltimore slugger Taylor Ward rates as a value play at +575 with BetRivers, showing a 2.7% edge.
Against White Sox starter Erick Fedde, the data supports Ward as one of Tuesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props — and a natural fit for Dinger Tuesday, a night built around finding value in long-ball matchups.
Originally sparked by sportsbook offers rewarding bonus bets for each home run hit by a selected player, Dinger Tuesday has evolved into a weekly tradition for MLB bettors — where clear, model-driven insights like these can help separate signal from noise.
Pro users have access to a total of five home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For June 30, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Taylor Ward who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.7% edge at +575 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
