Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Sunday has +1000 odds [7/12/2026]

Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.9% chance to go yard, followed by Eugenio Suárez (20.7%) and Shea Langeliers (19.6%).

Pete Alonso and Kyle Tucker are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Sunday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Sunday's home run picks [7/12/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and weighing key variables like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Rece Hinds (Marlins) to hit a home run

• Probability: 12.4%
• Odds: +1000
• Edge: 3.3%
• Game: Guardians vs. Marlins (1:40 PM EDT)
• Pitching matchup: Joey Cantillo

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Miami slugger Rece Hinds rates as a value play at +1000 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 3.3% edge.

Set to face Joey Cantillo in tonight's Guardians-Marlins matchup, the data supports Hinds as one of Sunday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For July 12, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Eugenio Suárez and Shea Langeliers projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Rece Hinds who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.3% edge at +1000 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Sunday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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