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Golf parlay picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational featuring Shane Lowry
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
We've used the Dimers model to construct another golf parlay when the PGA TOUR heads to the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Golf Club.
We've used the Dimers model to unearth another golf parlay for the latest PGA TOUR event, the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Golf Club and with 28 of the top 30 ranked golfers in the field, we have a number of appealing golf parlay opportunities.
As we do for all tournaments, Dimers has you covered with our best golf bets, full golf predictions and outright picks for the weekend and now it’s time to dive into some matchup angles with these +500 golf parlay picks, one of our favorite ways to attack elite-field events.
Though we saw a leg void due to Will Zalatoris' pre-tournament withdrawal, we still cashed out at reduced odds with last week's PGA parlay, and we're looking for another parlay win this time around.
Outright winners and Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 markets typically draw the most attention for golf parlay bettors, but head-to-head matchups can be just as profitable as you are narrowing down the field of competition to just a handful of golfers. For those looking at placement parlays, we have a pre-boosted Top 20 finish parlay built with the Dimers model.
To make this market easier, Dimers uses an in-house head-to-head golf simulation tool that pits golfers directly against each other and projects who will finish higher, whether for Round 1 or across the full 72 holes for every tournament on the PGA TOUR.
Arnold Palmer Invitational parlay picks
To make this golf parlay, we'll be using the Head-to-Head matchups available at DraftKings Sportsbook. We'll enter both golfers into our H2H Predictor, select the Tournament-long option, and see which golfer gets the advantage for the weekend.
With a handy "Fair Odds" to "Percentages" toggle, you can always check to see if there's value in any given matchup, and with a Dimers Pro subscription, you can simulate unlimited matchups for every tournament.
Combining these three data-back picks gets us a golf parlay at +500 odds.
Leg 1: Shane Lowry to beat Min Woo Lee (-112)
It's rare that a golfer can deliver heartbreak while still cashing three winning tickets, but that's exactly what Shane Lowry did last week, cruising to a Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20 cash, but blowing a three-stroke lead with three holes to go.
The Dimers model doesn't think that will cause a hangover for the Irishman, at least relative to his matchup with Min Woo Lee at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
While Lowry draws just a 1.6% win probability for the tournament, he's projected with a significant 57.6% chance to beat Lee, and that gets up to 61.9% if you include the probability of a tie.
Meanwhile, the books not only have this priced near evenly, but actually have Lowry as the "underdog" at -112 odds compared to Lee's -118.
This makes Lowry not only a value play (fair at -135), but also one of the most likely H2H winners of the week.
Both golfers are off to very good starts this year, each boasting a runner-up finish, but it's Lowry with the better history at Bay Hill. Lee has a T44 and three cuts in four tries, and despite four cuts in his first four appearances here, Lowry has gone solo 3rd and solo 7th in back-to-back years.
Leg 2: Russell Henley to beat Patrick Cantlay (-130)
Time for a USA head-to-head with our next matchup as we look for the bounceback weekend from Russell Henley, and a bounceback is much easier when you only need ot beat one other golfer.
Henley is the reigning champ of this event, improving on his T4 the year prior and previous best of T13 in 2022, while Cantlay has turned in two finishes outside the Top 30 in back-to-back years since his T4 debut in 2023.
Cantlay has taken the H2H matchup twice in their shared events this year, though Henley has been a bit more consistent, turning in three Top 20s before last week's uncharacteristic missed cut, and he boasts the better stastical profile with a significantly better driving game and on Par 5 scoring (very important at Bay Hill).
The Dimers model gives Henley twice the chance to win this tournament, and nearly 10% higher for a Top 20 finish than Cantlay, and while he's a bit overpriced, at a 58.3% probability to win or tie, he gets a clear advantage over his counterpart, who is under 50% for the same, yet priced at a 51% probability on the books.
Leg 3: Matt Fitzpatrick to beat Si Woo Kim (-126)
For our final leg, we're looking at this tightest matchup of the three, but one that the supporting data points to a notable favorite.
Matt Fitzpatrick nearly cashed in for us just two weeks ago and we're going to ride with him again at a course he's historically dominated.
Though he missed the cut in 2024, the Englishman has also turned in performances of 2nd, T9 (twice), T10, T14 and T22 since 2019. Si Woo Kim has one Top 25 performance in 10 tries, missing the weekend four times.
Both golfers share similar statistical profiles and are off to great starts this year, though Kim has fizzled a bit, following up four straight T11 or better finishes with a pair outside the Top 30.
Our model gives Fitzpatrick a 54.8% to win or tie, right around fair odds at his price, while Kim draws an implied probability of 51.2% by the sportsbook, which falls below our prediction.
Arnold Palmer Invitational parlay bet (+500 odds)
To round up our parlay, we have these three matchups below, with our selected golfer predicted to win over the course of 72 holes, at odds of +500 on DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Golf parlay picks | Win % | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Lowry to beat Min Woo Lee | 57.6% | -112 |
| Russell Henley to beat Patrick Cantlay | 53.2% | -130 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick to beat Si Woo Kim | 50.5% | -126 |
Dimers' expert golf picks and predictions for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including The Open and every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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