Frances Tiafoe vs. Mattia Bellucci prediction, odds, picks for ATP Mexico Open 2026

Frances Tiafoe and Mattia Bellucci will lock horns in the quarterfinals of the ATP Mexico Open event on Thursday.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Frances Tiafoe as the most likely winner of the Tiafoe vs. Bellucci match.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.

Tiafoe vs. Bellucci prediction: Who will win and advance to the semifinals?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Tiafoe-Bellucci men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Tiafoe a 63% chance of beating Bellucci at the ATP Mexico Open tournament.

Additionally, Tiafoe has a 61% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Tiafoe (-2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 22.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Frances Tiafoe vs. Mattia Bellucci odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Tiafoe vs. Bellucci picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: