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Frances Tiafoe vs. Andrea Pellegrino prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Tiafoe vs Pellegrino predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Frances Tiafoe will face Andrea Pellegrino in the round of 32 at the ATP Rome event on Monday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Frances Tiafoe as the most likely winner of the Tiafoe vs. Pellegrino match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's match, including best bets and picks.
Tiafoe vs. Pellegrino prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's Tiafoe-Pellegrino men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Tiafoe a 70% chance of defeating Pellegrino at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Tiafoe has a 67% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Pellegrino (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Frances Tiafoe vs. Andrea Pellegrino odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Tiafoe | Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -235 | +202 |
| First Set | -200 | +162 |
| Game Spread | -3.5 (-112) | +3.5 (-118) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-105) | u22.5 (-126) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Tiafoe vs. Pellegrino picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tiafoe | -235 |
| First Set | Pellegrino | -105 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 22.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Tiafoe vs. Pellegrino updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Frances Tiafoe and Andrea Pellegrino is scheduled to start on Monday at 6:10 AM ET.
- Who: Frances Tiafoe vs. Andrea Pellegrino
- Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
- Approx. Time: 6:10 AM ET/3:10AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 32
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Frances Tiafoe, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat Andrea Pellegrino at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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