Folarin Balogun's red card: Data shows notable dip in USMNT World Cup chances
We consult the Dimers data to see how much USMNT star Folarin Balogun's red card impacts the USA's World Cup run.
The USA got exactly what it wanted Wednesday night with a World Cup knockout-round win for the first time since 2002.
But the win came with a cost.
Folarin Balogun, the team's leading scorer with 3 goals in the tournament, was shown a straight red card after VAR review following seemingly incidental contact during a challenge on Bosnia defender Tarik Muharemović.
What looked like a fairly clear path for the USA to match its deepest run in the tournament in our lifetimes now has a big roadblock as Balogun will be forced to miss USA's Round of 16 matchup with Belgium.
An impactful headline on its own, the numbers underneath it are just as telling. Before kickoff against Bosnia, the USA's projected path through the bracket looked as good as it's looked in a generation with over a 50% chance to reach the quarterfinals, and now the USA must beat Belgium without its best player - and the data doesn't bode well for the USMNT.
Can USA beat Belgium with Folarin Balogun?
Entering the knockout rounds, with the group stage wrapped up, Dimers had the USA at:
- 83.0% to reach the Round of 16 (accomplished)
- 55.6% to reach the quarterfinals
- 19.7% to reach the semifinals
That 55.6% chance to reach the quarterfinals included both Belgium and Senegal as possible opponents before Belgium resolved that question earlier on Wednesday, storming back from 2-0 down to beat Senegal 3-2 in stunning fashion.
So the USA now knows exactly who's waiting on Monday and it's the team that bounced them from the Round of 16 in 2014 with a 2-1 win in extra time, as if there wasn't enough to stress about.
Following the wins by Belgium and USA and factoring in Balogun's absence, here's the latest probabilities for the United States:
- 43.6% to reach quarterfinals, down from 55.6% post-group stage
- 12.9% to reach semifinals, down from 19.7%
Should the USA survive, they'll face the winner of the Round of 16 match decided by Thursday's contests, currently projected to be Spain vs. Portugal, two top six contenders to win it all by the Dimers model.
However, the data says they're more likely to advance by forcing extra time; Belgium projects with a 39% chance to win in 90 minutes compared to the 37% for USA.
Early value points to Belgium taking advantage of Balogun's suspension, with a 3.3% edge on a Belgium win in regular time.
Who steps up in Balogun's absence?
How the USA deploys its squad vs. Belgium is currently unknown, but Ricardo Pepi is an option to slide right into the void, and projects as the USMNT top scorer in our first predictions for Belgium vs. USA.
Dimers' goalscorer projections.
When will Balogun return?
If there's one meaningful piece of good news buried in this, it's a single-match ban. Balogun is fully eligible to return for the quarterfinals, assuming the USA gets there.
Monday's match in Seattle was always going to be the toughest test of this tournament for a team trying to make its deepest men's World Cup run since Korea/Japan 2002. Now it's a genuine coin flip being played without the player most responsible for getting them here in the first place.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
