Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur prediction, odds, picks for 2026 Australian Open

Carlos Alcaraz and Alex de Minaur are scheduled to meet in the quarterfinals of the 2026 Australian Open on Tuesday.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the Alcaraz vs. de Minaur match.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's match, including best bets and picks.

Alcaraz vs. de Minaur prediction: Who will win and advance to the semifinals?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's Alcaraz-de Minaur men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Alcaraz an 83% chance of beating de Minaur in the 2026 Australian Open.

Additionally, Alcaraz has a 77% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Alcaraz (-6.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 36.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting**, according to our model.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Alcaraz vs. de Minaur picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: