Sabres vs. Penguins prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [3/5/2026]

The Pittsburgh Penguins will square off with the Buffalo Sabres, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at PPG Paints Arena on Thursday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Penguins a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Sabres.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's Sabres vs. Penguins matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Sabres vs. Penguins prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Sabres and Penguins 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Penguins a 51% chance of beating the Sabres.

According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 71% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.

Sabres vs. Penguins odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sabres	Penguins
Puck Line	-1.5 (+210)	+1.5 (-250)
Moneyline	-113	-105
Total	o6.5 (-105)	u6.5 (-114)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sabres vs. Penguins picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Penguins +1.5	-250
Moneyline	Penguins	-105
Total	Under 6.5	-114

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Penguins +1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sabres vs. Penguins player props

Who will score a goal in Sabres vs. Penguins?

According to our model, Tage Thompson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Sabres vs. Penguins.

Our projections give Thompson a 39.4% chance of scoring a goal at PPG Paints Arena, while the star is an 8.4% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Tage Thompson	39.4%
Alex Tuch	31.7%
Josh Norris	26.6%
Rasmus Dahlin	20.9%
Jason Zucker	20.5%

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Bryan Rust	30.1%
Rickard Rakell	28.4%
Yegor Chinakhov	27.9%
Anthony Mantha	24.7%
Thomas Novak	24.4%

First goal scorer predictions

Buffalo Sabres

Player	First Goal Probability
Tage Thompson	8.4%
Alex Tuch	6.0%
Josh Norris	4.7%
Jack Quinn	3.4%
Jason Zucker	3.3%

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	First Goal Probability
Rickard Rakell	5.5%
Bryan Rust	5.4%
Yegor Chinakhov	4.7%
Thomas Novak	4.6%
Evgeni Malkin	4.2%

Sabres vs. Penguins game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's action between the Penguins and Sabres at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Buffalo Sabres vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
• Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: PPG Paints Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Penguins, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Sabres on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Sabres vs. Penguins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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