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Bills vs. Falcons prediction: Why Buffalo is favored to win MNF Week 6, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons predictions for NFL Monday.
The Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills are scheduled to meet in Week 6 of the NFL season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Monday, with kickoff at 7:15PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Bills as the most likely winner of today's game.
This gameday Bills vs. Falcons betting preview builds on my Bills vs. Falcons prediction that was published earlier in the week.
For a closer look at today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Bills vs. Falcons predictions page.
Bills vs. Falcons predictions
Since our Bills-Falcons predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Monday's NFL game between the Bills and Falcons 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Bills a 60% chance of defeating the Falcons in Week 6 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 26-23.
According to our model, the Falcons (+3.5) have a 59% chance of covering the spread, while the 49.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 6 straight up picks.
Bills vs. Falcons odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bills | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | -200 | +170 |
| Total | o49.5 (-110) | u49.5 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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Bills vs. Falcons picks and best bets
Our model's biggest edge in today's Bills vs. Falcons matchup is on the total.
Our expert predictions, matched against the best odds, reveal the best NFL picks and NFL best bets for every game throughout the season.
Unlimited access to our full set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Bills vs. Falcons TD scorers
Who will score an anytime touchdown in Bills vs. Falcons?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Atlanta's Bijan Robinson is most likely to score the first TD in Bills vs. Falcons.
Our projections give Robinson a 15.7% chance of scoring the first TD at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the Falcons running back is a 56.3% chance of reaching the end zone at any point during the game.
First touchdown scorer predictions
Buffalo Bills
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 11.8% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 8.3% |
| Keon Coleman (WR) | 5.4% |
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (RB) | 15.7% |
| Drake London (WR) | 7.5% |
| Tyler Allgeier (RB) | 6.4% |
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Buffalo Bills
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 56.7% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 44.4% |
| Keon Coleman (WR) | 31.7% |
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (RB) | 56.3% |
| Drake London (WR) | 32.6% |
| Tyler Allgeier (RB) | 28.7% |
Bills vs Falcons player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bills and Falcons. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.
Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our NFL player projections page now to access player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 6 games.
Bills vs. Falcons quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected to throw for more yards than the Falcons' Michael Penix.
Bills rushing
James Cook, Josh Allen and Ray Davis are projected to be the leading rushers for the Bills.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| James Cook | RB |
| Josh Allen | QB |
| Ray Davis | RB |
Falcons rushing
Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Michael Penix are expected to lead the Falcons in rushing yards.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | RB |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB |
| Michael Penix | QB |
Bills receiving
Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox and Joshua Palmer are projected to top the receiving yards for the Bills.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | WR |
| Keon Coleman | WR |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE |
| Dawson Knox | TE |
| Joshua Palmer | WR |
Falcons receiving
Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, Casey Washington and Ray-Ray McCloud are projected to lead the Falcons in receiving yards.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Drake London | WR |
| Kyle Pitts | TE |
| Bijan Robinson | RB |
| Casey Washington | WR |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | WR |
Bills vs. Falcons game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 6 game between the Falcons and Bills at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to start at 7:15PM ET.
- Who: Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Date: Monday, October 13, 2025
- Time: 7:15PM ET/4:15PM PT
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Dimers' comprehensive preview of Monday's Bills vs. Falcons matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Bills vs. Falcons picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
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Conclusion
We predict the Bills, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Falcons in Week 6 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Bills vs. Falcons insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More on NFL
Keep up with the latest NFL betting news and NFL parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Super Bowl odds provide the most up-to-date probabilities for the Super Bowl, AFC, NFC and each division.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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