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Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows prediction: Cats favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 3 matchup [3/26/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows predictions for AFL Thursday.
The Geelong Cats and Adelaide Crows will lock horns in the Australian Football League (AFL) at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday, starting at 4:30 AM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven AFL model predicts the Cats as the most likely winner of the Crows vs. Cats game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cats vs. Crows prediction: Who will win Round 3 game?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's AFL game between the Crows and Cats, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Cats an 80% chance of beating the Crows.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Crows and Cats each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 169.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Adelaide vs. Geelong odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Crows | Cats |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +260 | -370 |
| Line (Spread) | +24.5 (-120) | -24.5 (-110) |
| Total | o169.5 (-115) | u169.5 (-120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Crows vs. Cats picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cats -24.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Cats | -370 |
| Total | Under 169.5 | -120 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Cats to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cats vs. Crows game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rules football matchup between the Cats and Crows at GMHBA Stadium is scheduled to commence at 4:30 AM ET.
- Who: Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats
- Date: Thursday, March 26, 2026
- Time: 4:30 AM ET/1:30AM PT
- Venue: GMHBA Stadium
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Cats, with an 80% win probability, will likely beat the Crows on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Crows vs. Cats insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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