Heat vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Warriors NBA game on January 19, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA sport icon
NBA
Heat
93
104
Chase Center
Warriors
Chase Center
TEAM1234T
Heat
34 32 25 2 93
Warriors
36 34 31 3 104
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Heat
    <1%
  • Warriors
    >99%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Heat
34 32 25 2 93
Warriors
36 34 31 3 104
Q4 00:06 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:13 Warriors misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:34 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:10 Warriors misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:37 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:10 Warriors makes two point jump shot
Q4 3:05 Heat makes three point jump shot
Q4 3:19 Warriors misses two point jump shot
Q4 3:56 Warriors makes three point jump shot
Q4 5:17 Warriors makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    End of 4th Quarter.
  2. Q4 00:00
    Instant replay (Request: Ruling Upheld)
  3. Q4 00:02
    Heat personal foul
  4. Q4 00:06
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  5. Q4 00:13
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  6. Q4 00:34
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  7. Q4 1:04
    Heat turnover
  8. Q4 1:10
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  9. Q4 1:37
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  10. Q4 1:44
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  11. Q4 2:10
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    93-104
  12. Q4 2:25
    +1
    Dru Smith makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    93-104
  13. Q4 2:34
    Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
  14. Q4 2:51
    Warriors lineup change (Trayce Jackson-Davis, Malevy Leons, LJ Cryer, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield)
  15. Q4 3:05
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    93-104
  16. Q4 3:19
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  17. Q4 3:54
    Heat 60 second timeout
  18. Q4 3:54
    Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Dru Smith, Keshad Johnson, Myron Gardner, Nikola Jovic)
  19. Q4 3:54
    Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield, Moses Moody)
  20. Q4 3:56
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    93-104
  21. Q4 4:21
    Heat turnover
  22. Q4 4:59
    Buddy Hield defensive rebound
  23. Q4 5:17
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    93-104
  24. Q4 5:43
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  25. Q4 5:51
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  26. Q4 6:13
    Simone Fontecchio misses three point jump shot
  27. Q4 6:27
    +3
    Buddy Hield makes three point jump shot
    93-104
  28. Q4 6:38
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  29. Q4 7:05
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  30. Q4 7:05
    Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Buddy Hield, Moses Moody)
  31. Q4 7:15
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  32. Q4 7:21
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  33. Q4 7:26
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  34. Q4 7:39
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  35. Q4 8:03
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  36. Q4 8:19
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    93-104
  37. Q4 8:27
    Warriors offensive rebound
  38. Q4 8:37
    Will Richard defensive rebound
  39. Q4 8:49
    Warriors turnover
  40. Q4 9:04
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    93-104
  41. Q4 9:04
    Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Brandin Podziemski, Quinten Post, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody)
  42. Q4 9:29
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    93-104
  43. Q4 9:56
    Stephen Curry defensive rebound
  44. Q4 10:09
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  45. Q4 10:32
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    93-104
  46. Q4 10:56
    Heat turnover
  47. Q4 10:57
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point driving layup
  48. Q4 11:03
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
  49. Q4 11:18
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    93-104
  50. Q3 00:00
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  51. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  52. Q4 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry, Quinten Post, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody)
  53. Q3 00:03
    Warriors personal foul
  54. Q3 00:05
    Heat defensive rebound
  55. Q3 00:29
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  56. Q3 00:50
    Heat turnover
  57. Q3 1:09
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  58. Q3 1:36
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    90-98
  59. Q3 1:48
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  60. Q3 1:56
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  61. Q3 1:58
    Warriors turnover
  62. Q3 1:58
    Instant replay
  63. Q3 2:03
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  64. Q3 2:23
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  65. Q3 2:46
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  66. Q3 2:53
    Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
  67. Q3 3:13
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    85-98
  68. Q3 3:44
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  69. Q3 3:45
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    83-95
  70. Q3 3:46
    Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield)
  71. Q3 4:11
    Heat turnover
  72. Q3 4:20
    Heat personal foul
  73. Q3 4:20
    Warriors offensive rebound
  74. Q3 4:45
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
  75. Q3 4:59
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    77-92
  76. Q3 5:17
    Heat 60 second timeout
  77. Q3 5:17
    Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Norman Powell, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Simone Fontecchio)
  78. Q3 5:21
    Moses Moody defensive rebound
  79. Q3 5:29
    Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
  80. Q3 5:47
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    75-87
  81. Q3 5:54
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  82. Q3 6:10
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    75-85
  83. Q3 6:22
    Heat personal foul
  84. Q3 6:27
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  85. Q3 6:48
    Heat 60 second timeout
  86. Q3 6:48
    Heat lineup change (Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Bam Adebayo)
  87. Q3 6:57
    Quinten Post defensive rebound
  88. Q3 7:11
    Heat personal foul
  89. Q3 7:11
    +1
    Brandin Podziemski makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    75-79
  90. Q3 7:31
    Norman Powell defensive rebound
  91. Q3 7:35
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  92. Q3 7:41
    Heat personal foul
  93. Q3 7:58
    Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
  94. Q3 8:05
    Jimmy Butler III misses two point tip layup
  95. Q3 8:09
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  96. Q3 8:26
    Heat personal foul
  97. Q3 8:26
    Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Quinten Post, Moses Moody)
  98. Q3 8:43
    +1
    Jimmy Butler III makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    73-76
  99. Q3 9:03
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    73-75
  100. Q3 9:11
    Will Richard misses three point jump shot
  101. Q3 9:32
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    71-75
  102. Q3 9:51
    Warriors personal foul
  103. Q3 10:00
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  104. Q3 10:13
    Davion Mitchell misses three point jump shot
  105. Q3 10:37
    Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
  106. Q3 10:43
    Norman Powell offensive rebound
  107. Q3 10:51
    Warriors turnover
  108. Q3 10:55
    Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
  109. Q3 10:56
    Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
  110. Q3 11:01
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  111. Q3 11:11
    Warriors turnover
  112. Q3 11:27
    Warriors personal foul
  113. Q3 11:27
    Norman Powell misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  114. Q3 11:41
    Heat personal foul
  115. Q3 11:50
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  116. Q3 11:50
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  117. Q3 11:50
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  118. Q3 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Quinten Post, Moses Moody)
  119. Q2 00:00
    Instant replay (Request: Ruling Upheld)
  120. Q2 00:04
    Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Jimmy Butler III, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody)
  121. Q2 00:04
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Bam Adebayo)
  122. Q2 00:25
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    64-70
  123. Q2 00:35
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  124. Q2 00:48
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    62-70
  125. Q2 00:58
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  126. Q2 1:10
    Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
  127. Q2 1:10
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Bam Adebayo)
  128. Q2 1:10
    Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Quinten Post, Moses Moody)
  129. Q2 1:27
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    62-67
  130. Q2 1:48
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  131. Q2 2:01
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    59-65
  132. Q2 2:22
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  133. Q2 2:23
    Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
  134. Q2 2:27
    Bam Adebayo misses two point tip layup
  135. Q2 2:50
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    57-63
  136. Q2 3:14
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    54-60
  137. Q2 3:23
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  138. Q2 3:40
    Will Richard offensive rebound
  139. Q2 3:50
    Heat personal foul
  140. Q2 4:00
    Warriors personal foul
  141. Q2 4:00
    +1
    Davion Mitchell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    54-55
  142. Q2 4:26
    Warriors personal foul
  143. Q2 4:26
    Heat offensive rebound
  144. Q2 4:26
    Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Stephen Curry, Al Horford, Jimmy Butler III, Buddy Hield)
  145. Q2 4:32
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  146. Q2 4:50
    Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
  147. Q2 4:58
    Heat turnover
  148. Q2 5:01
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  149. Q2 5:27
    Warriors turnover
  150. Q2 5:29
    Warriors offensive rebound
  151. Q2 5:49
    Buddy Hield defensive rebound
  152. Q2 5:59
    Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
  153. Q2 6:21
    Warriors turnover
  154. Q2 6:21
    Instant replay
  155. Q2 6:21
    Davion Mitchell personal foul (Will Richard draws the foul)
  156. Q2 6:23
    Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
  157. Q2 6:33
    Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Al Horford, Jimmy Butler III, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield)
  158. Q2 6:33
    Heat lineup change (Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Bam Adebayo)
  159. Q2 6:53
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    47-52
  160. Q2 7:04
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  161. Q2 7:22
    Heat lineup change (Dru Smith, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Bam Adebayo)
  162. Q2 7:36
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  163. Q2 7:55
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    47-49
  164. Q2 8:14
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    47-47
  165. Q2 8:18
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  166. Q2 8:24
    +1
    Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    46-45
  167. Q2 8:24
    Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Jimmy Butler III, Pat Spencer, Moses Moody)
  168. Q2 8:32
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  169. Q2 8:36
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  170. Q2 8:40
    Quinten Post offensive rebound
  171. Q2 8:48
    Quinten Post defensive rebound
  172. Q2 9:04
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    45-45
  173. Q2 9:34
    Brandin Podziemski turnover (offensive foul)
  174. Q2 9:53
    Quinten Post defensive rebound
  175. Q2 10:07
    Norman Powell defensive rebound
  176. Q2 10:30
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    43-43
  177. Q2 10:43
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    40-43
  178. Q2 11:04
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    40-41
  179. Q2 11:32
    Heat personal foul
  180. Q2 11:32
    Warriors offensive rebound
  181. Q2 11:32
    +1
    Moses Moody makes regular free throw 3 of 3
    37-38
  182. Q1 00:00
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  183. Q1 00:00
    End of 1st Quarter.
  184. Q2 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry, Quinten Post, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody)
  185. Q1 00:06
    Warriors personal foul
  186. Q1 00:06
    +1
    Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    33-36
  187. Q1 00:06
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Dru Smith, Pelle Larsson, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
  188. Q1 00:27
    Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
  189. Q1 00:29
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. turnover (lost ball)
  190. Q1 00:33
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    32-33
  191. Q1 00:48
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    32-30
  192. Q1 00:48
    +1
    Jimmy Butler III makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    32-31
  193. Q1 1:00
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    32-28
  194. Q1 1:06
    +1
    Jimmy Butler III makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    30-28
  195. Q1 1:28
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    30-26
  196. Q1 1:32
    Warriors turnover
  197. Q1 1:42
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  198. Q1 1:52
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  199. Q1 2:07
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    28-26
  200. Q1 2:16
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  201. Q1 2:21
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  202. Q1 2:23
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  203. Q1 2:50
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    28-21
  204. Q1 3:01
    Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
  205. Q1 3:15
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  206. Q1 3:18
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  207. Q1 3:25
    Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Norman Powell, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Simone Fontecchio)
  208. Q1 3:32
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    26-21
  209. Q1 3:42
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  210. Q1 3:46
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  211. Q1 3:52
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  212. Q1 4:22
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    23-19
  213. Q1 4:36
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  214. Q1 5:04
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    23-17
  215. Q1 5:08
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  216. Q1 5:24
    Heat personal foul
  217. Q1 5:24
    +1
    Stephen Curry makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    21-16
  218. Q1 5:24
    +1
    Stephen Curry makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    21-17
  219. Q1 5:37
    Davion Mitchell offensive rebound
  220. Q1 5:57
    Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
  221. Q1 5:59
    Heat personal foul
  222. Q1 5:59
    Trayce Jackson-Davis misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  223. Q1 6:08
    +1
    Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 1 of 3
    16-15
  224. Q1 6:08
    +1
    Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 2 of 3
    17-15
  225. Q1 6:08
    +1
    Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 3 of 3
    18-15
  226. Q1 6:34
    Heat lineup change (Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Bam Adebayo)
  227. Q1 6:40
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    15-12
  228. Q1 6:52
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  229. Q1 7:12
    Heat personal foul
  230. Q1 7:12
    +1
    Brandin Podziemski makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    11-12
  231. Q1 7:18
    Warriors personal foul
  232. Q1 7:18
    +1
    Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    11-9
  233. Q1 7:25
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    8-12
  234. Q1 7:38
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  235. Q1 7:53
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  236. Q1 8:15
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    6-9
  237. Q1 8:25
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  238. Q1 8:33
    Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
  239. Q1 8:41
    Quinten Post defensive rebound
  240. Q1 9:04
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    6-7
  241. Q1 9:13
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  242. Q1 9:41
    Warriors turnover
  243. Q1 9:52
    Warriors personal foul
  244. Q1 9:52
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    5-2
  245. Q1 10:02
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    4-2
  246. Q1 10:10
    Heat violation
  247. Q1 10:13
    Quinten Post offensive rebound
  248. Q1 10:27
    Warriors personal foul
  249. Q1 10:27
    +1
    Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    3-0
  250. Q1 10:27
    +1
    Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    4-0
  251. Q1 10:35
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  252. Q1 10:38
    Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
  253. Q1 10:41
    Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
  254. Q1 10:54
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  255. Q1 11:00
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  256. Q1 11:02
    Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
  257. Q1 11:15
    Warriors turnover
  258. Q1 11:35
    Heat defensive rebound
  259. Q1 11:37
    Jimmy Butler III offensive rebound
  260. Q1 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Quinten Post, Moses Moody)
  261. Q1 12:00
    Bam Adebayo vs. Quinten Post (Moses Moody gains possession)
Box Score
Heat
PosPlayerPts
Warriors
PosPlayerPts

Heat vs. Warriors: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Heat vs. Warriors
  • Date: Monday, January 19, 2026
  • Time: 10:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Chase Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Warriors favored at -5.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 239.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Heat +175, Warriors -205

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Heat: 31%
  • Warriors: 69%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 116-121 Warriors.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 31%, while the Warriors have a win probability of 69%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Warriors are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Chase Center on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Heat vs. Warriors predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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