Timberwolves vs. Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Timberwolves vs. Rockets NBA game on January 16, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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Timberwolves
105
110
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Rockets
Toyota Center
TEAM1234T
Timberwolves
34 21 27 23 105
Rockets
29 24 28 29 110
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Timberwolves
    <1%
  • Rockets
    >99%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Timberwolves
34 21 27 23 105
Rockets
29 24 28 29 110
Q4 00:00 Bones Hyland misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:58 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:15 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:35 Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
Q4 3:37 Alperen Sengun misses two point jump shot
Q4 4:00 Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
Q4 4:22 Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:01 Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:50 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Q4 6:19 Rockets makes three point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    Bones Hyland misses three point jump shot
  2. Q4 00:00
    End of 4th Quarter.
  3. Q4 00:01
    Jabari Smith Jr. misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  4. Q4 00:01
    Timberwolves lineup change (Bones Hyland, Naz Reid, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaylen Clark)
  5. Q4 00:05
    Timberwolves 60 second timeout
  6. Q4 00:14
    Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound
  7. Q4 00:22
    Timberwolves personal foul
  8. Q4 00:22
    Instant replay
  9. Q4 00:22
    +1
    Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    103-108
  10. Q4 00:22
    +1
    Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    103-109
  11. Q4 00:38
    Timberwolves turnover
  12. Q4 00:51
    +1
    Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    103-106
  13. Q4 1:09
    Jaden McDaniels misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  14. Q4 1:09
    +1
    Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    103-105
  15. Q4 1:19
    Rockets personal foul
  16. Q4 1:34
    Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
  17. Q4 1:56
    Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
  18. Q4 1:58
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  19. Q4 2:10
    Timberwolves personal foul
  20. Q4 2:15
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  21. Q4 2:35
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  22. Q4 2:56
    Rockets offensive rebound
  23. Q4 3:19
    Rockets personal foul
  24. Q4 3:32
    Timberwolves turnover
  25. Q4 3:37
    Alperen Sengun misses two point jump shot
  26. Q4 4:00
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    96-101
  27. Q4 4:15
    Timberwolves personal foul
  28. Q4 4:15
    Josh Okogie misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  29. Q4 4:15
    +1
    Josh Okogie makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    94-101
  30. Q4 4:22
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  31. Q4 4:27
    Rudy Gobert misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  32. Q4 4:27
    Rudy Gobert misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  33. Q4 4:35
    Julius Randle defensive rebound
  34. Q4 4:58
    Rockets personal foul
  35. Q4 4:58
    Rudy Gobert misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  36. Q4 5:01
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  37. Q4 5:11
    Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
  38. Q4 5:11
    Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo)
  39. Q4 5:47
    Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound
  40. Q4 5:50
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  41. Q4 6:00
    Rockets 60 second timeout
  42. Q4 6:19
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    91-100
  43. Q4 6:40
    Rockets turnover
  44. Q4 7:03
    Jump ball. (Amen Thompson gains possession)
  45. Q4 7:07
    Timberwolves turnover
  46. Q4 7:07
    Julius Randle turnover (lost ball)
  47. Q4 7:47
    Julius Randle misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  48. Q4 7:47
    +1
    Julius Randle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    89-94
  49. Q4 8:00
    Naz Reid defensive rebound
  50. Q4 8:15
    +1
    Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    88-94
  51. Q4 8:26
    +3
    Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
    88-93
  52. Q4 8:34
    Timberwolves defensive rebound
  53. Q4 8:55
    Kevin Durant defensive rebound
  54. Q4 9:05
    Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound
  55. Q4 9:16
    Timberwolves turnover
  56. Q4 9:27
    Timberwolves personal foul
  57. Q4 9:31
    Kevin Durant defensive rebound
  58. Q4 9:40
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    85-90
  59. Q4 9:41
    Timberwolves lineup change (Bones Hyland, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo)
  60. Q4 10:13
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  61. Q4 10:35
    Mike Conley turnover
  62. Q4 10:39
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  63. Q4 10:52
    Timberwolves defensive rebound
  64. Q4 10:52
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  65. Q4 10:52
    Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo)
  66. Q4 10:55
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  67. Q4 11:14
    Rudy Gobert offensive rebound
  68. Q4 11:14
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    84-84
  69. Q4 11:16
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  70. Q4 11:38
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    82-84
  71. Q4 12:00
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson)
  72. Q3 00:09
    Amen Thompson defensive rebound
  73. Q3 00:27
    Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  74. Q3 00:27
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jae'Sean Tate)
  75. Q3 00:35
    Rockets personal foul
  76. Q3 00:35
    +1
    Julius Randle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    81-80
  77. Q3 00:44
    Rockets offensive rebound
  78. Q3 1:08
    Rockets personal foul
  79. Q3 1:08
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  80. Q3 1:27
    Timberwolves turnover
  81. Q3 1:54
    Timberwolves violation
  82. Q3 1:54
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Dorian Finney-Smith)
  83. Q3 2:13
    Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound
  84. Q3 2:16
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  85. Q3 2:36
    Kevin Durant misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  86. Q3 2:36
    Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Naz Reid, Julius Randle, Jaylen Clark)
  87. Q3 2:43
    Amen Thompson defensive rebound
  88. Q3 2:45
    Rudy Gobert misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  89. Q3 2:51
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  90. Q3 3:01
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  91. Q3 3:01
    Instant replay
  92. Q3 3:02
    Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Jaylen Clark)
  93. Q3 3:07
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  94. Q3 3:21
    Rockets turnover
  95. Q3 3:38
    +3
    Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
    79-74
  96. Q3 4:01
    Timberwolves personal foul
  97. Q3 4:01
    +1
    Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    76-73
  98. Q3 4:01
    Timberwolves lineup change (Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Joan Beringer, Donte DiVincenzo)
  99. Q3 4:26
    Rockets turnover
  100. Q3 4:46
    +3
    Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
    74-72
  101. Q3 5:06
    Rockets turnover
  102. Q3 5:39
    Joan Beringer defensive rebound
  103. Q3 6:05
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  104. Q3 6:07
    Rockets personal foul
  105. Q3 6:07
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  106. Q3 6:20
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    71-71
  107. Q3 6:20
    +1
    Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    71-72
  108. Q3 6:34
    Rockets offensive rebound
  109. Q3 6:37
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    71-69
  110. Q3 6:37
    Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  111. Q3 6:57
    Naz Reid defensive rebound
  112. Q3 6:59
    Timberwolves personal foul
  113. Q3 6:59
    Rockets offensive rebound
  114. Q3 7:25
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    66-67
  115. Q3 7:41
    Rockets personal foul
  116. Q3 7:41
    Donte DiVincenzo offensive rebound
  117. Q3 7:41
    Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
  118. Q3 7:50
    Julius Randle defensive rebound
  119. Q3 7:52
    Timberwolves personal foul
  120. Q3 7:52
    Kevin Durant misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  121. Q3 8:25
    Timberwolves personal foul
  122. Q3 8:25
    Timberwolves lineup change (Bones Hyland, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo)
  123. Q3 8:25
    +1
    Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    66-65
  124. Q3 8:45
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    66-62
  125. Q3 9:14
    Rockets offensive rebound
  126. Q3 9:31
    Rockets personal foul
  127. Q3 9:34
    Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
  128. Q3 9:41
    Josh Okogie defensive rebound
  129. Q3 9:47
    Rockets turnover
  130. Q3 10:10
    Rockets personal foul
  131. Q3 10:13
    Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
  132. Q3 10:25
    Timberwolves personal foul
  133. Q3 10:26
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  134. Q3 10:31
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  135. Q3 10:49
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    57-59
  136. Q3 11:04
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  137. Q3 11:04
    Rockets 60 second timeout
  138. Q3 11:04
    Instant replay
  139. Q3 11:17
    Timberwolves personal foul
  140. Q3 11:17
    +1
    Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    57-56
  141. Q3 11:59
    Rockets offensive rebound
  142. Q3 12:00
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson)
  143. Q2 00:01
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    55-53
  144. Q2 00:06
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  145. Q2 00:07
    Timberwolves turnover
  146. Q2 00:07
    Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Julius Randle, Jaylen Clark)
  147. Q2 00:31
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    55-50
  148. Q2 00:47
    Rockets personal foul
  149. Q2 00:47
    Naz Reid misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  150. Q2 00:47
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  151. Q2 1:01
    +1
    Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    54-48
  152. Q2 1:07
    Timberwolves turnover
  153. Q2 1:18
    Julius Randle defensive rebound
  154. Q2 1:50
    Naz Reid defensive rebound
  155. Q2 1:52
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  156. Q2 2:17
    Rockets personal foul
  157. Q2 2:17
    +1
    Julius Randle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    51-45
  158. Q2 2:17
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson)
  159. Q2 2:17
    Julius Randle misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  160. Q2 2:22
    Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound
  161. Q2 2:37
    Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
  162. Q2 2:39
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  163. Q2 3:20
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    50-43
  164. Q2 3:30
    Amen Thompson defensive rebound
  165. Q2 3:32
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  166. Q2 3:42
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  167. Q2 3:42
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  168. Q2 4:20
    Timberwolves lineup change (Bones Hyland, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo)
  169. Q2 4:26
    Josh Okogie defensive rebound
  170. Q2 4:39
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  171. Q2 4:56
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    48-41
  172. Q2 5:25
    Jae'Sean Tate offensive rebound
  173. Q2 5:42
    Timberwolves turnover
  174. Q2 5:48
    Rockets personal foul
  175. Q2 5:48
    Rockets personal foul
  176. Q2 6:12
    Timberwolves turnover
  177. Q2 6:33
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    45-36
  178. Q2 6:51
    Rockets 60 second timeout
  179. Q2 7:04
    +2
    Rockets makes two point jump shot
    42-34
  180. Q2 7:14
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  181. Q2 7:18
    Rockets misses two point jump shot
  182. Q2 7:34
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    42-32
  183. Q2 8:00
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  184. Q2 8:18
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    40-30
  185. Q2 8:24
    Jaden McDaniels offensive rebound
  186. Q2 8:27
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  187. Q2 8:45
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  188. Q2 8:47
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  189. Q2 9:14
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  190. Q2 9:17
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  191. Q2 9:25
    Rockets turnover
  192. Q2 9:35
    Naz Reid offensive rebound
  193. Q2 9:44
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  194. Q2 9:59
    Amen Thompson defensive rebound
  195. Q2 10:08
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  196. Q2 10:11
    Rudy Gobert offensive rebound
  197. Q2 10:23
    +1
    Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    36-30
  198. Q2 10:23
    Amen Thompson misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  199. Q2 10:44
    Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
  200. Q2 10:46
    Rockets personal foul
  201. Q2 10:46
    Rudy Gobert misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  202. Q2 10:57
    Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
  203. Q2 11:22
    Naz Reid defensive rebound
  204. Q2 11:24
    Timberwolves personal foul
  205. Q2 11:24
    Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  206. Q2 11:39
    Josh Okogie defensive rebound
  207. Q2 11:45
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  208. Q1 00:00
    Rockets misses three point jump shot
  209. Q1 00:03
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  210. Q1 00:19
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    34-29
  211. Q1 1:01
    Clint Capela defensive rebound
  212. Q1 1:03
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  213. Q1 1:32
    +3
    Rockets makes three point jump shot
    31-23
  214. Q1 1:46
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  215. Q1 1:46
    +1
    Julius Randle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    30-20
  216. Q1 1:46
    +1
    Julius Randle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    31-20
  217. Q1 2:12
    +3
    Reed Sheppard makes three point pullup jump shot
    29-20
  218. Q1 2:26
    +2
    Naz Reid makes two point driving floating bank jump shot (Julius Randle assists)
    29-17
  219. Q1 2:49
    +1
    Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    27-16
  220. Q1 3:04
    +3
    Naz Reid makes three point jump shot (Bones Hyland assists)
    27-15
  221. Q1 3:15
    Rockets lineup change (Clint Capela, Kevin Durant, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Dorian Finney-Smith)
  222. Q1 3:20
    +2
    Kevin Durant makes two point pullup jump shot
    24-15
  223. Q1 3:30
    Bones Hyland misses three point jump shot
  224. Q1 3:39
    Naz Reid defensive rebound
  225. Q1 4:06
    Jabari Smith Jr. personal foul (Donte DiVincenzo draws the foul)
  226. Q1 4:06
    Rockets lineup change (Clint Capela, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Dorian Finney-Smith, JD Davison)
  227. Q1 4:17
    Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Bones Hyland, Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaylen Clark)
  228. Q1 4:17
    Rockets offensive rebound
  229. Q1 4:17
    Jabari Smith Jr. technical foul
  230. Q1 4:17
    Jaylen Clark defensive rebound
  231. Q1 4:17
    Jabari Smith Jr. misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  232. Q1 4:19
    Naz Reid blocks Jabari Smith Jr.'s two point driving layup
  233. Q1 4:28
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  234. Q1 4:41
    +2
    Jaden McDaniels makes two point floating jump shot
    21-13
  235. Q1 4:56
    Jaden McDaniels offensive rebound
  236. Q1 5:01
    Jabari Smith Jr. blocks Jaden McDaniels's two point running reverse layup
  237. Q1 5:27
    +2
    Rudy Gobert makes two point tip layup
    19-13
  238. Q1 5:27
    Rudy Gobert offensive rebound
  239. Q1 5:32
    Jabari Smith Jr. misses three point jump shot
  240. Q1 5:33
    Josh Okogie offensive rebound
  241. Q1 6:03
    +2
    Kevin Durant makes two point pullup jump shot
    14-13
  242. Q1 6:07
    Kevin Durant offensive rebound
  243. Q1 6:20
    Julius Randle misses three point jump shot
  244. Q1 6:29
    Stoppage (Other)
  245. Q1 6:46
    +1
    Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    14-8
  246. Q1 6:46
    +1
    Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    13-8
  247. Q1 6:53
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  248. Q1 6:53
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, JD Davison)
  249. Q1 7:05
    +2
    Alperen Sengun makes two point jump shot
    12-8
  250. Q1 7:05
    Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
  251. Q1 7:35
    +2
    Julius Randle makes two point running dunk (Rudy Gobert assists)
    12-6
  252. Q1 7:39
    Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
  253. Q1 7:52
    Donte DiVincenzo misses three point jump shot
  254. Q1 8:06
    +2
    Alperen Sengun makes two point jump shot
    10-6
  255. Q1 8:52
    Alperen Sengun misses two point pullup jump shot
  256. Q1 8:59
    Jaden McDaniels personal foul (Alperen Sengun draws the foul)
  257. Q1 9:24
    +2
    Alperen Sengun makes two point putback layup
    7-4
  258. Q1 9:27
    Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
  259. Q1 9:34
    Julius Randle misses two point running dunk
  260. Q1 9:39
    Amen Thompson turnover (lost ball) (Mike Conley steals)
  261. Q1 10:03
    Timberwolves defensive rebound
  262. Q1 10:04
    Josh Okogie misses two point running dunk
  263. Q1 10:26
    Amen Thompson defensive rebound
  264. Q1 10:27
    Jaden McDaniels misses three point stepback jump shot
  265. Q1 10:47
    Donte DiVincenzo blocks Amen Thompson's two point dunk
  266. Q1 11:03
    +2
    Jaden McDaniels makes two point running alley-oop dunk (Donte DiVincenzo assists)
    5-0
  267. Q1 11:18
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  268. Q1 11:18
    Rockets offensive rebound
  269. Q1 11:37
    Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
  270. Q1 11:38
    Jaden McDaniels blocks Kevin Durant's two point driving layup
  271. Q1 12:00
    Rockets lineup change (Jabari Smith Jr., Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson)
  272. Q1 12:00
    Rudy Gobert vs. Alperen Sengun (Josh Okogie gains possession)
Box Score
Timberwolves
PosPlayerPts
Rockets
PosPlayerPts

Timberwolves vs. Rockets: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Timberwolves vs. Rockets
  • Date: Friday, January 16, 2026
  • Time: 9:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Toyota Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Rockets favored at -3.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 222.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Timberwolves +143, Rockets -160

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Timberwolves: 39%
  • Rockets: 61%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Timberwolves 109-112 Rockets.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Timberwolves a win probability of 39%, while the Rockets have a win probability of 61%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Rockets are more likely to beat the Timberwolves in the NBA game at Toyota Center on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Timberwolves vs. Rockets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.