Heat vs. Hawks Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Hawks NBA game on December 26, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
Heat
126
111
State Farm Arena
Hawks
State Farm Arena
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 32 | 31 | 35 | 28 | 126 |
Hawks | 32 | 19 | 36 | 24 | 111 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
- Heat
- Hawks
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 32 | 31 | 35 | 28 | 126 |
Hawks | 32 | 19 | 36 | 24 | 111 |
Q4 00:33 Hawks misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:42 Kel'el Ware makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:05 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:27 Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point driving layup (Trae Young assists)
Q4 1:31 Andrew Wiggins makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:34 Andrew Wiggins misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:49 Hawks makes three point jump shot
Q4 2:16 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:29 Hawks makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:33 Hawks misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
- End of 4th Quarter.
- Heat turnover
- Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci)
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- +3Kel'el Ware makes three point jump shot126-111
- Kel'el Ware personal foul
- +1Onyeka Okongwu makes regular free throw 1 of 2123-110
- +1Onyeka Okongwu makes regular free throw 2 of 2126-111
- Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +2Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point driving layup (Trae Young assists)126-111
- Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
- +2Andrew Wiggins makes two point jump shot126-111
- Andrew Wiggins misses two point jump shot
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot126-111
- Andrew Wiggins personal foul
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat offensive rebound
- +1Norman Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2126-111
- Hawks personal foul
- Norman Powell misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot126-111
- Hawks violation
- Trae Young offensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- +2Norman Powell makes two point driving layup (Davion Mitchell assists)117-102
- Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Jalen Johnson turnover (discontinue dribble)
- Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell)
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot117-102
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot117-100
- Norman Powell defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot115-100
- +2Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point running layup (Jalen Johnson assists)113-100
- Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
- Pelle Larsson misses two point jump shot
- Davion Mitchell shooting foul (Trae Young draws the foul)
- +1Trae Young makes regular free throw 1 of 2113-97
- +1Trae Young makes regular free throw 2 of 2126-111
- +2Norman Powell makes two point driving layup119-104
- Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker)
- Hawks turnover
- +2Nikola Jovic makes two point jump shot119-104
- Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
- Jalen Johnson misses three point jump shot
- +3Pelle Larsson makes three point bank jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)117-102
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot126-111
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- +2Trae Young makes two point jump shot104-96
- Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
- Davion Mitchell misses two point driving layup
- +2Asa Newell makes two point running dunk (Jalen Johnson assists)104-96
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Nikola Jovic, Norman Powell)
- Asa Newell defensive rebound
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point cutting layup
- Kasparas Jakucionis offensive rebound
- Kasparas Jakucionis misses two point driving layup
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot126-111
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot126-111
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot102-89
- Hawks 60 second timeout
- Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Asa Newell, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci)
- +2Dru Smith makes two point jump shot (Nikola Jovic assists)126-111
- Hawks turnover
- Heat personal foul
- Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Asa Newell, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci, Zaccharie Risacher)
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot126-111
- Hawks turnover
- Vit Krejci defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Hawks turnover
- Hawks 60 second timeout
- Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Vit Krejci, Zaccharie Risacher)
- +2Andrew Wiggins makes two point jump shot98-87
- Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
- Onyeka Okongwu misses two point jump shot
- Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Hawks personal foul
- +1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2126-111
- +1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2126-111
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot119-104
- Asa Newell shooting foul (Nikola Jovic draws the foul)
- +1Nikola Jovic makes regular free throw 1 of 2126-111
- +1Nikola Jovic makes regular free throw 2 of 2126-111
- Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot119-104
- Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Vit Krejci defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound
- Heat personal foul
- Nikola Jovic misses heave shot
- Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Onyeka Okongwu, Vit Krejci, Zaccharie Risacher)
- Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- +1Mouhamed Gueye makes regular free throw 1 of 2126-111
- +1Mouhamed Gueye makes regular free throw 2 of 2126-111
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- End of 3rd Quarter.
- Onyeka Okongwu misses three point jump shot
- Dru Smith offensive rebound
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot119-104
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker turnover (Dru Smith steals)
- +2Nikola Jovic makes two point jump shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)119-104
- Heat personal foul
- +1Trae Young makes regular free throw 1 of 2119-104
- +1Trae Young makes regular free throw 2 of 2126-111
- Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +2Vit Krejci makes two point jump shot117-102
- +3Kasparas Jakucionis makes three point jump shot117-102
- Dru Smith defensive rebound
- Trae Young misses three point running pullup jump shot
- Trae Young defensive rebound
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point jump shot
- Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Heat personal foul
- Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
- Nikola Jovic misses two point jump shot
- Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- +1Dru Smith makes regular free throw 2 of 2117-102
- Trae Young shooting foul (Dru Smith draws the foul)
- +1Dru Smith makes regular free throw 1 of 2117-102
- Dru Smith defensive rebound
- Vit Krejci misses three point jump shot
- +2Andrew Wiggins makes two point putback layup79-75
- Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Mouhamed Gueye personal foul (Jaime Jaquez Jr. draws the foul)
- Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
- Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Hawks 60 second timeout
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot79-75
- Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
- Norman Powell misses three point stepback jump shot
- Trae Young turnover (bad pass) (Kasparas Jakucionis steals)
- Hawks defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot79-75
- Norman Powell personal foul
- +1Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 179-75
- Hawks personal foul
- Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Nikola Jovic, Norman Powell, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- +1Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 179-75
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot102-89
- Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
- +2Jalen Johnson makes two point driving floating jump shot79-75
- Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses three point jump shot
- Hawks personal foul
- Heat defensive rebound
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point jump shot
- Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point driving hook shot
- Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
- Kel'el Ware misses three point running jump shot
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
- Zaccharie Risacher misses two point jump shot
- +2Norman Powell makes two point jump shot79-75
- +2Onyeka Okongwu makes two point jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)79-75
- +3Kel'el Ware makes three point jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)79-75
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot98-87
- Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
- Norman Powell misses three point jump shot
- Norman Powell offensive rebound
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses three point jump shot
- Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Zaccharie Risacher)
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot79-75
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Davion Mitchell turnover (Jalen Johnson steals)
- Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
- Onyeka Okongwu misses two point jump shot
- +2Kel'el Ware makes two point jump shot79-75
- Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
- Davion Mitchell misses two point jump shot
- Norman Powell defensive rebound
- Jalen Johnson misses two point turnaround jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +3Trae Young makes three point jump shot79-75
- +2Pelle Larsson makes two point cutting layup (Andrew Wiggins assists)79-75
- +2Onyeka Okongwu makes two point jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)71-64
- Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Hawks turnover
- Heat turnover
- Heat personal foul
- +1Trae Young makes regular free throw 1 of 271-64
- +1Trae Young makes regular free throw 2 of 271-64
- +2Davion Mitchell makes two point driving layup67-57
- Heat personal foul
- +1Trae Young makes regular free throw 1 of 271-64
- +1Trae Young makes regular free throw 2 of 271-64
- Heat turnover
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot71-64
- Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Hawks turnover
- +2Pelle Larsson makes two point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)67-57
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Kel'el Ware turnover (bad pass) (Dyson Daniels steals)
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot71-64
- Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Heat offensive rebound
- +2Jalen Johnson makes two point driving finger roll layup (Trae Young assists)63-51
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- End of 1st Half.
- Heat offensive rebound
- Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Zaccharie Risacher)
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell)
- Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
- Andrew Wiggins misses three point pullup jump shot
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Onyeka Okongwu misses three point jump shot
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. turnover
- Onyeka Okongwu turnover
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot63-51
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point jump shot
- Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Andrew Wiggins, Norman Powell, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Davion Mitchell personal foul (Onyeka Okongwu draws the foul)
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot63-51
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- +2Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point driving finger roll layup63-51
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- +3Norman Powell makes three point jump shot63-51
- Hawks turnover
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot63-51
- Norman Powell defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Heat offensive rebound
- Heat turnover (shot clock violation)
- Norman Powell misses three point pullup jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Heat 60 second timeout
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot47-46
- +2Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point cutting layup (Davion Mitchell assists)47-46
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- +2Pelle Larsson makes two point jump shot (Norman Powell assists)47-46
- Norman Powell defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Trae Young turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
- Norman Powell turnover (bad pass) (Dyson Daniels steals)
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Davion Mitchell personal foul (Nickeil Alexander-Walker draws the foul)
- +2Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point jump shot47-45
- +1Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes regular free throw 1 of 147-46
- Davion Mitchell turnover
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker)
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot47-43
- Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Vit Krejci defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
- Pelle Larsson misses two point pullup jump shot
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot47-41
- Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot47-39
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Heat turnover
- Hawks personal foul
- Dyson Daniels turnover (offensive foul)
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Nikola Jovic, Norman Powell)
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot45-39
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot42-39
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot42-36
- Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot40-36
- Heat turnover
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot39-34
- Hawks personal foul
- Instant replay
- +1Nikola Jovic makes regular free throw 1 of 240-34
- Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci)
- Asa Newell defensive rebound
- Hawks turnover
- Hawks personal foul
- Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Vit Krejci, Zaccharie Risacher)
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Asa Newell defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Heat offensive rebound
- Hawks personal foul
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Hawks turnover
- Hawks personal foul
- +1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 235-34
- +1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 236-34
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot34-34
- Keaton Wallace defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
- Keaton Wallace misses three point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot34-32
- Hawks turnover
- Heat turnover
- Hawks turnover
- Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot32-32
- End of 1st Quarter.
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Hawks lineup change (Keaton Wallace, Asa Newell, Onyeka Okongwu, Vit Krejci, Zaccharie Risacher)
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
- Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
- Heat personal foul
- +1Mouhamed Gueye makes regular free throw 1 of 330-31
- +1Mouhamed Gueye makes regular free throw 2 of 330-32
- Mouhamed Gueye misses regular free throw 3 of 3
- Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Hawks offensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Trae Young defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
- Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound
- Mouhamed Gueye misses two point tip layup
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Hawks personal foul
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Heat offensive rebound
- +1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 230-30
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot29-30
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot29-27
- Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot29-24
- Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- Hawks personal foul
- +1Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 1 of 225-24
- +1Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 2 of 226-24
- Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot24-23
- Heat personal foul
- Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
- +1Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 124-24
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot24-21
- Vit Krejci defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot24-18
- Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Hawks turnover
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot24-15
- Hawks 60 second timeout
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis, Norman Powell, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Norman Powell defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot22-15
- Hawks turnover
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot20-15
- Norman Powell defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- Hawks 60 second timeout
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Zaccharie Risacher)
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot18-15
- Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
- Hawks misses three point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot16-15
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot14-15
- Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot14-13
- Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot14-11
- Hawks defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot14-9
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot14-7
- +2Hawks makes two point jump shot11-6
- Heat personal foul
- +1Trae Young makes regular free throw 1 of 111-7
- Hawks defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Hawks turnover
- Hawks personal foul
- +1Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 210-4
- +1Norman Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 211-4
- Norman Powell defensive rebound
- Hawks misses two point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot9-4
- Heat personal foul
- Jalen Johnson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Hawks offensive rebound
- +1Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 27-4
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot7-3
- +3Hawks makes three point jump shot5-3
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot5-0
- Hawks personal foul
- Hawks turnover
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot2-0
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell)
- Kel'el Ware vs. Onyeka Okongwu (Pelle Larsson gains possession)
- Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Zaccharie Risacher)
- Start of 1st Quarter
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
Heat vs. Hawks: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Heat vs. Hawks
- Date: Friday, December 26, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: State Farm Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Hawks favored at -3
- Total (Over/Under): 250.5
- Moneyline Odds: Heat +130, Hawks -148
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Heat: 39%
- Hawks: 61%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 123-126 Hawks.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 39%, while the Hawks have a win probability of 61%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Hawks are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at State Farm Arena on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Heat vs. Hawks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
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