Heat vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Mavericks NBA game on December 3, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
Heat
108
118
American Airlines Center
Mavericks
American Airlines Center
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 33 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 108 |
Mavericks | 28 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 118 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
- Heat
- Mavericks
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 33 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 108 |
Mavericks | 28 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 118 |
Q4 00:08 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:24 Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Q4 00:48 Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:58 Mavericks makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:18 Andrew Wiggins makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:19 Andrew Wiggins misses two point tip layup
Q4 1:21 Tyler Herro misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:25 Mavericks makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:49 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:59 Cooper Flagg makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
- End of 4th Quarter.
- Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Anthony Davis defensive rebound
- Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot108-118
- +2Andrew Wiggins makes two point jump shot108-116
- Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
- Andrew Wiggins misses two point tip layup
- Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
- Tyler Herro misses three point jump shot
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot106-116
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Anthony Davis defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +2Cooper Flagg makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)106-114
- Naji Marshall defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +2Anthony Davis makes two point turnaround bank jump shot106-112
- +2Bam Adebayo makes two point running finger roll layup (Davion Mitchell assists)108-118
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
- Anthony Davis defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks 60 second timeout
- Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg)
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Heat offensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Caleb Martin, Max Christie, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg)
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Max Christie misses two point pullup jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot104-110
- Heat personal foul
- +1Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2102-110
- Mavericks offensive rebound
- Anthony Davis misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Tyler Herro)
- +2Kel'el Ware makes two point jump shot102-110
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot108-118
- Anthony Davis defensive rebound
- Andrew Wiggins misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson)
- Cooper Flagg turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Bam Adebayo, Dru Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio)
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot94-104
- +3Naji Marshall makes three point jump shot (Max Christie assists)102-109
- +3Dru Smith makes three point jump shot94-104
- Dru Smith offensive rebound
- Simone Fontecchio misses three point jump shot
- Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Kel'el Ware turnover
- Kel'el Ware defensive goaltending violation
- +2Naji Marshall makes two point jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)108-118
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot108-118
- Naji Marshall personal foul (Andrew Wiggins draws the foul)
- Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg)
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot94-104
- Kel'el Ware personal foul
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Cooper Flagg misses regular free throw 1 of 1
- Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks offensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Mavericks turnover
- Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg)
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot108-118
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Kel'el Ware personal foul (Cooper Flagg draws the foul)
- +1Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 2 of 2108-118
- +1Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 1 of 2108-118
- Mavericks 60 second timeout
- +2Dru Smith makes two point jump shot89-98
- Cooper Flagg turnover (lost ball) (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)
- +1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 289-98
- Klay Thompson shooting foul (Jaime Jaquez Jr. draws the foul)
- +1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2108-118
- +2Naji Marshall makes two point layup (Ryan Nembhard assists)102-109
- Heat turnover
- Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Cooper Flagg)
- Mavericks turnover
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- D'Angelo Russell misses three point jump shot
- D'Angelo Russell defensive rebound
- Tyler Herro misses three point running jump shot
- Anthony Davis turnover
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot80-96
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Klay Thompson misses three point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot104-110
- Anthony Davis turnover (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Heat turnover
- Heat offensive rebound
- Dru Smith offensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- D'Angelo Russell personal foul
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot104-110
- Anthony Davis defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Dru Smith defensive rebound
- End of 3rd Quarter.
- Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, Cooper Flagg, D'Angelo Russell)
- Klay Thompson misses three point jump shot
- +3Kel'el Ware makes three point jump shot (Dru Smith assists)104-110
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot108-118
- Klay Thompson defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +3D'Angelo Russell makes three point stepback jump shot (Klay Thompson assists)108-118
- Dru Smith personal foul (Brandon Williams draws the foul)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. turnover (traveling)
- Naji Marshall personal foul (Jaime Jaquez Jr. draws the foul)
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyler Herro)
- +1Dru Smith makes regular free throw 1 of 1108-118
- Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, D'Angelo Russell)
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot108-118
- Brandon Williams offensive rebound
- Daniel Gafford misses two point putback layup
- Daniel Gafford offensive rebound
- Klay Thompson misses three point jump shot
- Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
- Andrew Wiggins misses three point pullup jump shot
- Brandon Williams turnover
- +2Kel'el Ware makes two point running alley-oop dunk (Dru Smith assists)108-118
- Daniel Gafford turnover (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)
- Naji Marshall offensive rebound
- Brandon Williams misses three point jump shot
- Mavericks 60 second timeout
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- +3Simone Fontecchio makes three point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)74-85
- Heat lineup change (Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, Daniel Gafford, D'Angelo Russell)
- Brandon Williams misses two point driving finger roll layup
- Heat defensive rebound
- +2Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point tip layup76-87
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
- Bam Adebayo misses two point jump shot
- +2Cooper Flagg makes two point jump shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)108-118
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot108-118
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot108-118
- Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
- Heat personal foul
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, Cooper Flagg, Daniel Gafford, D'Angelo Russell)
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- +2Brandon Williams makes two point fadeaway jump shot104-110
- +2Bam Adebayo makes two point putback dunk108-118
- Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
- Bam Adebayo misses two point jump shot
- Heat defensive rebound
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, Cooper Flagg, Daniel Gafford)
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Max Christie misses three point jump shot
- +2Bam Adebayo makes two point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)104-110
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot108-118
- Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
- Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
- Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
- Klay Thompson misses three point jump shot
- Heat turnover (Daniel Gafford steals)
- Heat 60 second timeout
- Stoppage (Court cleanup)
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Klay Thompson, Cooper Flagg, Daniel Gafford)
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot108-118
- Max Christie defensive rebound
- Anthony Davis blocks Davion Mitchell's two point jump shot
- Mavericks turnover
- Anthony Davis defensive rebound
- Davion Mitchell misses three point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Tyler Herro defensive rebound
- Tyler Herro defensive rebound
- Cooper Flagg misses two point tip layup
- Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
- +2Andrew Wiggins makes two point running layup (Davion Mitchell assists)104-110
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Cooper Flagg offensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
- Bam Adebayo turnover
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot108-118
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot108-118
- Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
- Cooper Flagg misses two point jump shot
- +2Bam Adebayo makes two point jump shot108-118
- Ryan Nembhard personal foul
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)108-118
- Anthony Davis defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- +3Max Christie makes three point jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)108-118
- +1Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 1 of 2108-118
- Mavericks personal foul
- +1Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 2 of 2108-118
- Naji Marshall personal foul
- +2Naji Marshall makes two point driving floating bank jump shot108-118
- Heat offensive rebound
- End of 1st Half.
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg)
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Tyler Herro)
- Ryan Nembhard personal foul (Nikola Jovic draws the foul)
- +1Tyler Herro makes technical free throw 1 of 154-64
- Mavericks personal foul
- Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Caleb Martin, Max Christie, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson)
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot54-64
- Naji Marshall offensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Anthony Davis defensive rebound
- Andrew Wiggins misses two point driving hook shot
- Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
- Klay Thompson misses three point jump shot
- Anthony Davis defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat defensive rebound
- Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson)
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat lineup change (Bam Adebayo, Nikola Jovic, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Tyler Herro)
- Mavericks 60 second timeout
- Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
- Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Klay Thompson, Cooper Flagg)
- Bam Adebayo misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
- Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
- Ryan Nembhard misses two point stepback jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot76-87
- +2Cooper Flagg makes two point running pullup jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)76-87
- D'Angelo Russell defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +2D'Angelo Russell makes two point floating jump shot54-64
- D'Angelo Russell offensive rebound
- D'Angelo Russell misses two point driving floating jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot76-87
- Mavericks delay of game violation
- +2Max Christie makes two point jump shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)76-87
- Davion Mitchell personal foul (Ryan Nembhard draws the foul)
- Andrew Wiggins personal foul (Daniel Gafford draws the foul)
- Andrew Wiggins turnover (offensive foul)
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Cooper Flagg, Daniel Gafford, D'Angelo Russell)
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot108-118
- Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
- Pelle Larsson misses three point jump shot
- Naji Marshall offensive rebound
- +2Naji Marshall makes two point putback layup51-60
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Heat personal foul
- Max Christie defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
- Max Christie misses three point stepback jump shot
- +2Bam Adebayo makes two point jump shot53-64
- +2Ryan Nembhard makes two point jump shot76-87
- Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
- Nikola Jovic misses two point driving floating jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Heat offensive rebound
- Pelle Larsson misses three point jump shot
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Daniel Gafford, D'Angelo Russell)
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Nikola Jovic, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins)
- Heat 60 second timeout
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot108-118
- Anthony Davis defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot53-64
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot108-118
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot108-118
- Simone Fontecchio turnover
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot108-118
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot108-118
- Mavericks offensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Mavericks turnover
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Heat personal foul
- Mavericks offensive rebound
- Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Kel'el Ware, Davion Mitchell, Simone Fontecchio, Tyler Herro)
- Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg)
- Klay Thompson misses two point jump shot
- +2Heat makes two point jump shot66-81
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Anthony Davis defensive rebound
- Heat misses two point jump shot
- Klay Thompson offensive rebound
- Mavericks turnover
- Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Davion Mitchell, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyler Herro)
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- +3Heat makes three point jump shot108-118
- Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
- Dru Smith misses three point running jump shot
- Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
- Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
- Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
- Heat misses three point jump shot
- +3Klay Thompson makes three point jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)37-38
- Tyler Herro turnover (bad pass) (Anthony Davis steals)
- Klay Thompson kicked ball violation
- +3Anthony Davis makes three point jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)37-35
- Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
- +2Kel'el Ware makes two point tip dunk37-32
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point driving floating jump shot
- +2Cooper Flagg makes two point jump shot (Anthony Davis assists)35-32
- Cooper Flagg shooting foul (Jaime Jaquez Jr. draws the foul)
- +1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 235-30
- +1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 234-30
- +2Anthony Davis makes two point tip layup33-30
- Anthony Davis offensive rebound
- Simone Fontecchio blocks Klay Thompson's two point driving layup
- Dwight Powell blocks Simone Fontecchio's two point driving layup
- Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Cooper Flagg)
- End of 1st Quarter.
- Heat offensive rebound
- Start of 2nd Quarter
- +2Klay Thompson makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot33-28
- Caleb Martin personal foul (Loose ball) (Simone Fontecchio draws the foul)
- Caleb Martin technical foul (Double)
- +1Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 2 of 233-26
- Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Max Christie, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, D'Angelo Russell)
- Simone Fontecchio technical foul (Double)
- +1Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 1 of 232-26
- Heat defensive rebound
- Heat personal foul
- Caleb Martin turnover
- D'Angelo Russell misses three point pullup jump shot
- +1Kel'el Ware makes regular free throw 2 of 231-26
- Caleb Martin shooting foul (Kel'el Ware draws the foul)
- +1Kel'el Ware makes regular free throw 1 of 230-26
- Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
- Caleb Martin misses two point driving finger roll layup
- +2Tyler Herro makes two point driving floating jump shot (Dru Smith assists)28-26
- +1Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 1 of 129-26
- D'Angelo Russell shooting foul (Tyler Herro draws the foul)
- D'Angelo Russell turnover
- +2Brandon Williams makes two point running reverse layup26-26
- Dwight Powell defensive rebound
- Dru Smith misses two point driving floating jump shot
- Dru Smith defensive rebound
- Klay Thompson misses two point jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Mavericks turnover
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Dwight Powell, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, D'Angelo Russell)
- Mavericks offensive rebound
- Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Dwight Powell, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, D'Angelo Russell)
- Kel'el Ware blocks Brandon Williams's two point driving reverse layup
- Klay Thompson defensive rebound
- Klay Thompson blocks Simone Fontecchio's three point jump shot
- Brandon Williams turnover (bad pass) (Kel'el Ware steals)
- +2Kel'el Ware makes two point putback dunk26-24
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
Heat vs. Mavericks: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Heat vs. Mavericks
- Date: Wednesday, December 3, 2025
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Heat favored at -4.5
- Total (Over/Under): 237.5
- Moneyline Odds: Heat -185, Mavericks +162
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Heat: 66%
- Mavericks: 34%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 121-116 Mavericks.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 66%, while the Mavericks have a win probability of 34%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Heat are more likely to beat the Mavericks in the NBA game at American Airlines Center on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Heat vs. Mavericks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
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