Heat vs. Pelicans Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Pelicans NBA game on February 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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Heat
123
111
Smoothie King Center
Pelicans
Smoothie King Center
TEAM1234T
Heat
31 27 38 27 123
Pelicans
25 30 30 26 111
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Heat
    >99%
  • Pelicans
    <1%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Heat
31 27 38 27 123
Pelicans
25 30 30 26 111
Q4 00:45 Jeremiah Fears misses two point tip layup
Q4 1:12 Zion Williamson misses two point driving floating jump shot
Q4 2:14 Jeremiah Fears misses two point running reverse layup
Q4 9:31 Pelicans makes two point jump shot
Q4 11:46 Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point turnaround jump shot
Q3 00:00 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q3 00:33 Pelicans misses three point jump shot
Q3 00:42 Heat makes two point jump shot
Q3 00:51 Pelicans makes two point jump shot
Q3 1:12 Dru Smith makes two point layup
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    End of 4th Quarter.
  2. Q4 00:04
    Saddiq Bey personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)
  3. Q4 00:04
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    122-111
  4. Q4 00:04
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    123-111
  5. Q4 00:42
    Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
  6. Q4 00:45
    Jeremiah Fears misses two point tip layup
  7. Q4 1:12
    Zion Williamson misses two point driving floating jump shot
  8. Q4 2:11
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  9. Q4 2:14
    Jeremiah Fears misses two point running reverse layup
  10. Q4 4:51
    Nikola Jovic turnover (bad pass) (Herbert Jones steals)
  11. Q4 5:34
    Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
  12. Q4 9:20
    Pelicans personal foul
  13. Q4 9:20
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    103-93
  14. Q4 9:20
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    104-93
  15. Q4 9:20
    Pelicans lineup change (Saddiq Bey, Jeremiah Fears, Derik Queen, Zion Williamson, Bryce McGowens)
  16. Q4 9:31
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    102-93
  17. Q4 9:45
    +1
    Dru Smith makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    102-91
  18. Q4 10:13
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  19. Q4 10:13
    Heat offensive rebound
  20. Q4 10:13
    +1
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    104-93
  21. Q4 11:44
    Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
  22. Q4 11:46
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point turnaround jump shot
  23. Q3 00:00
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  24. Q3 00:00
    Heat offensive rebound
  25. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  26. Q4 12:00
    Heat lineup change (Nikola Jovic, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Dru Smith, Bam Adebayo)
  27. Q3 00:19
    Heat personal foul
  28. Q3 00:19
    Bryce McGowens misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  29. Q3 00:19
    Pelicans offensive rebound
  30. Q3 00:19
    +1
    Bryce McGowens makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    112-105
  31. Q3 00:19
    Pelicans lineup change (Saddiq Bey, Jeremiah Fears, Herbert Jones, Zion Williamson, Bryce McGowens)
  32. Q3 00:21
    Heat turnover
  33. Q3 00:30
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  34. Q3 00:33
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  35. Q3 00:42
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    104-93
  36. Q3 00:51
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    104-93
  37. Q3 1:12
    +2
    Dru Smith makes two point layup
    112-103
  38. Q3 1:23
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  39. Q3 1:25
    Dru Smith misses two point layup
  40. Q3 1:25
    Dru Smith offensive rebound
  41. Q3 1:25
    Kevon Looney misses two point cutting layup
  42. Q3 1:44
    Kevon Looney defensive rebound
  43. Q3 1:45
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  44. Q3 2:06
    Heat 60 second timeout
  45. Q3 2:06
    Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Dru Smith, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware)
  46. Q3 2:06
    Pelicans lineup change (Saddiq Bey, Kevon Looney, Jeremiah Fears, Zion Williamson, Bryce McGowens)
  47. Q3 2:07
    +3
    Pelicans makes three point jump shot
    112-105
  48. Q3 2:12
    Kevon Looney defensive rebound
  49. Q3 2:16
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  50. Q3 2:36
    +3
    Pelicans makes three point jump shot
    112-105
  51. Q3 2:46
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    112-105
  52. Q3 3:04
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    104-93
  53. Q3 3:25
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    104-93
  54. Q3 3:33
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  55. Q3 3:36
    Trey Murphy III misses three point jump shot
  56. Q3 3:48
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    112-103
  57. Q3 3:59
    +1
    Bryce McGowens makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    112-103
  58. Q3 3:59
    +1
    Bryce McGowens makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    112-103
  59. Q3 3:59
    Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Myron Gardner, Dru Smith, Kel'el Ware)
  60. Q3 3:59
    Heat personal foul
  61. Q3 4:20
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    104-93
  62. Q3 4:28
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
  63. Q3 4:30
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  64. Q3 4:33
    Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
  65. Q3 4:36
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  66. Q3 4:36
    Jeremiah Fears turnover (bad pass) (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)
  67. Q3 4:42
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
  68. Q3 4:44
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  69. Q3 4:51
    Trey Murphy III personal foul
  70. Q3 4:51
    Instant replay (Request: Ruling Overturned)
  71. Q3 4:51
    +1
    Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 2 of 3
    104-93
  72. Q3 4:51
    +1
    Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 3 of 3
    104-93
  73. Q3 4:51
    +1
    Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 1 of 3
    104-93
  74. Q3 4:56
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  75. Q3 4:56
    Heat offensive rebound
  76. Q3 4:56
    Pelicans personal foul
  77. Q3 4:56
    Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Myron Gardner, Kel'el Ware)
  78. Q3 4:56
    Pelicans lineup change (Trey Murphy III, Karlo Matkovic, Kevon Looney, Jeremiah Fears, Bryce McGowens)
  79. Q3 4:58
    Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
  80. Q3 5:02
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  81. Q3 5:09
    Kevon Looney offensive rebound
  82. Q3 5:09
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    104-93
  83. Q3 5:15
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  84. Q3 5:35
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    104-93
  85. Q3 5:50
    Heat defensive rebound
  86. Q3 5:50
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  87. Q3 5:50
    Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Kel'el Ware)
  88. Q3 5:50
    Pelicans lineup change (Trey Murphy III, Karlo Matkovic, Kevon Looney, Herbert Jones, Bryce McGowens)
  89. Q3 5:52
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  90. Q3 5:56
    Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
  91. Q3 6:00
    Davion Mitchell misses two point stepback jump shot
  92. Q3 6:10
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    104-93
  93. Q3 6:31
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    104-93
  94. Q3 6:39
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    104-93
  95. Q3 6:59
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    104-93
  96. Q3 7:00
    Myron Gardner offensive rebound
  97. Q3 7:02
    Kel'el Ware misses two point tip layup
  98. Q3 7:02
    Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
  99. Q3 7:04
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  100. Q3 7:08
    Kel'el Ware misses two point putback layup
  101. Q3 7:08
    Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
  102. Q3 7:09
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  103. Q3 7:12
    Kel'el Ware blocks Zion Williamson's two point driving finger roll layup
  104. Q3 7:24
    Pelicans personal foul
  105. Q3 7:24
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    112-103
  106. Q3 7:24
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    112-103
  107. Q3 7:40
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  108. Q3 7:40
    Zion Williamson offensive rebound
  109. Q3 7:40
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    112-103
  110. Q3 7:40
    Heat personal foul
  111. Q3 7:40
    +1
    Zion Williamson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    112-103
  112. Q3 7:55
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    112-103
  113. Q3 8:10
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    112-103
  114. Q3 8:10
    Heat personal foul
  115. Q3 8:10
    +1
    Trey Murphy III makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    112-103
  116. Q3 8:13
    Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
  117. Q3 8:15
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  118. Q3 8:26
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  119. Q3 8:28
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  120. Q3 8:50
    Pelicans 60 second timeout
  121. Q3 8:51
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    104-93
  122. Q3 8:54
    Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
  123. Q3 8:58
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  124. Q3 9:07
    Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
  125. Q3 9:11
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  126. Q3 9:28
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  127. Q3 9:38
    +3
    Pelicans makes three point jump shot
    112-103
  128. Q3 9:40
    Derik Queen defensive rebound
  129. Q3 9:44
    Pelicans personal foul
  130. Q3 9:44
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    112-103
  131. Q3 9:44
    Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  132. Q3 9:48
    Pelicans turnover
  133. Q3 9:57
    Pelicans defensive rebound
  134. Q3 9:57
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  135. Q3 9:59
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  136. Q3 10:02
    Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
  137. Q3 10:04
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  138. Q3 10:19
    Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
  139. Q3 10:25
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  140. Q3 10:29
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  141. Q3 10:33
    Myron Gardner offensive rebound
  142. Q3 10:38
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  143. Q3 10:45
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    112-103
  144. Q3 10:57
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    112-103
  145. Q3 11:05
    Pelicans personal foul
  146. Q3 11:13
    Pelicans turnover
  147. Q3 11:21
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    112-103
  148. Q3 11:24
    Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
  149. Q3 11:27
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  150. Q3 11:35
    Myron Gardner defensive rebound
  151. Q3 11:37
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  152. Q2 00:00
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  153. Q2 00:00
    Heat offensive rebound
  154. Q2 00:00
    End of 1st Half.
  155. Q3 12:00
    Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware)
  156. Q2 00:02
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    112-103
  157. Q2 00:19
    Pelicans defensive rebound
  158. Q2 00:19
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  159. Q2 00:21
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  160. Q2 00:35
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    58-53
  161. Q2 00:49
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    58-51
  162. Q2 1:00
    +3
    Pelicans makes three point jump shot
    58-53
  163. Q2 1:02
    Herbert Jones defensive rebound
  164. Q2 1:06
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  165. Q2 1:21
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  166. Q2 1:25
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  167. Q2 1:37
    Pelicans personal foul
  168. Q2 1:37
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    58-53
  169. Q2 1:37
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    58-53
  170. Q2 1:46
    Pelicans personal foul
  171. Q2 1:46
    Instant replay
  172. Q2 1:46
    Instant replay
  173. Q2 1:46
    Instant replay
  174. Q2 1:46
    +1
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    58-53
  175. Q2 1:46
    +1
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    58-53
  176. Q2 1:49
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  177. Q2 1:52
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  178. Q2 1:57
    Saddiq Bey offensive rebound
  179. Q2 2:01
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  180. Q2 2:13
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    58-53
  181. Q2 2:17
    Pelicans turnover
  182. Q2 2:36
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    58-53
  183. Q2 2:52
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    58-53
  184. Q2 3:04
    Pelicans personal foul
  185. Q2 3:04
    +1
    Simone Fontecchio makes technical free throw 1 of 1
    58-51
  186. Q2 3:04
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    58-53
  187. Q2 3:06
    Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
  188. Q2 3:07
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  189. Q2 3:13
    Pelicans turnover
  190. Q2 3:16
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  191. Q2 3:16
    Pelicans offensive rebound
  192. Q2 3:16
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  193. Q2 3:16
    Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware)
  194. Q2 3:16
    Pelicans lineup change (Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey, Herbert Jones, Derik Queen, Zion Williamson)
  195. Q2 3:24
    Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
  196. Q2 3:26
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  197. Q2 3:37
    Myron Gardner defensive rebound
  198. Q2 3:39
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  199. Q2 3:57
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    58-53
  200. Q2 3:58
    Myron Gardner offensive rebound
  201. Q2 4:01
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  202. Q2 4:19
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    58-53
  203. Q2 4:21
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  204. Q2 4:40
    Pelicans defensive rebound
  205. Q2 4:40
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  206. Q2 4:42
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  207. Q2 4:47
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  208. Q2 4:58
    Kel'el Ware shooting foul (Derik Queen draws the foul)
  209. Q2 4:58
    +1
    Derik Queen makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    58-53
  210. Q2 4:58
    +1
    Derik Queen makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    58-53
  211. Q2 4:58
    Pelicans lineup change (Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey, Karlo Matkovic, Jeremiah Fears, Derik Queen)
  212. Q2 5:16
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    58-53
  213. Q2 5:34
    Heat personal foul
  214. Q2 5:34
    +1
    Trey Murphy III makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    58-53
  215. Q2 5:34
    +1
    Trey Murphy III makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    58-53
  216. Q2 5:41
    Pelicans 60 second timeout
  217. Q2 5:41
    Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Kel'el Ware)
  218. Q2 5:50
    Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
  219. Q2 5:52
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  220. Q2 6:01
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  221. Q2 6:05
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  222. Q2 6:09
    Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
  223. Q2 6:11
    Kel'el Ware misses two point turnaround hook shot
  224. Q2 6:27
    Heat personal foul
  225. Q2 6:27
    +1
    Bryce McGowens makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    58-53
  226. Q2 6:27
    +1
    Bryce McGowens makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    58-53
  227. Q2 6:37
    Pelicans defensive rebound
  228. Q2 6:37
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  229. Q2 6:40
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  230. Q2 6:54
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    47-46
  231. Q2 6:54
    Heat 60 second timeout
  232. Q2 6:54
    Heat lineup change (Nikola Jovic, Simone Fontecchio, Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Kel'el Ware)
  233. Q2 6:54
    Pelicans lineup change (Trey Murphy III, Karlo Matkovic, Jeremiah Fears, Derik Queen, Bryce McGowens)
  234. Q2 6:59
    Heat turnover
  235. Q2 7:12
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  236. Q2 7:15
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  237. Q2 7:30
    Bryce McGowens defensive rebound
  238. Q2 7:34
    Pelicans personal foul
  239. Q2 7:34
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    47-46
  240. Q2 7:34
    Heat lineup change (Nikola Jovic, Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Dru Smith, Bam Adebayo)
  241. Q2 7:34
    Pelicans lineup change (Jeremiah Fears, Herbert Jones, Derik Queen, Zion Williamson, Bryce McGowens)
  242. Q2 7:34
    Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  243. Q2 7:45
    +3
    Pelicans makes three point jump shot
    47-46
  244. Q2 8:00
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    47-46
  245. Q2 8:08
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    47-46
  246. Q2 8:19
    Kevon Looney defensive rebound
  247. Q2 8:21
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    36-31
  248. Q2 8:21
    Pelicans personal foul
  249. Q2 8:21
    Dru Smith misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  250. Q2 8:21
    Pelicans lineup change (Kevon Looney, Jeremiah Fears, Herbert Jones, Zion Williamson, Bryce McGowens)
  251. Q2 8:28
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    34-31
  252. Q2 8:41
    Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
  253. Q2 8:45
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  254. Q2 8:49
    Dru Smith defensive rebound
  255. Q2 8:51
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  256. Q2 9:02
    Kevon Looney defensive rebound
  257. Q2 9:04
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  258. Q2 9:15
    Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
  259. Q2 9:17
    Zion Williamson misses two point pullup jump shot
  260. Q2 9:31
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    47-46
  261. Q2 9:50
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    47-46
  262. Q2 10:04
    Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
  263. Q2 10:08
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  264. Q2 10:15
    Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
  265. Q2 10:18
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  266. Q2 10:22
    Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
  267. Q2 10:26
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  268. Q2 10:45
    +2
    Jeremiah Fears makes two point jump shot (Zion Williamson assists)
    31-27
  269. Q2 10:51
    Kasparas Jakucionis turnover (bad pass) (Jeremiah Fears steals)
  270. Q2 10:58
    Herbert Jones personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)
  271. Q1 00:00
    Instant replay
  272. Q1 6:55
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Box Score
Heat
PosPlayerPts
Pelicans
PosPlayerPts

Heat vs. Pelicans: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Heat vs. Pelicans
  • Date: Wednesday, February 11, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Smoothie King Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Pelicans favored at -2
  • Total (Over/Under): 232.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Heat +105, Pelicans -120

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Heat: 42%
  • Pelicans: 58%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 115-118 Pelicans.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 42%, while the Pelicans have a win probability of 58%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Pelicans are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Smoothie King Center on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Heat vs. Pelicans predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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