How Dimers’ new player projections tool found 4 mispriced NBA props

Using the new, upgraded Dimers app and its enhanced player projections tools, we found four player NBA player props well off their sportsbook lines on Monday’s eight-game board, each with a real, explainable reason the market hasn’t caught up.

The upgrade is worth knowing about if you want to run this search yourself: every chart is now taller and full width, with each game’s actual number labeled right on the bar, so a stretch like Paul Reed’s four games under the line or Stephen Curry’s five straight overs reads clearly at a glance.

You can also drag the bar to test your own number and see how often a player would have cleared it, sort the full list by gap, player, line or projection, a change plenty of you asked for, and flick from one player straight to the next with a new player rail instead of backing out to the list.

Tonight, the widest gap (line vs. projection) belongs to Pistons big man Paul Reed, who is averaging just 11.0 points over his last five games against a 12.5-point line, yet Dimers projects him for 21.5 against the Wizards - a gap of 9. Lakers center Walker Kessler, Raptors forward Scottie Barnes, and Warriors guard Stephen Curry round out the "biggest gap" list.

NEW FEATURES: Download the latest version of the Dimers app today

Paul Reed’s workload changed the moment Jalen Duren went down with a right hamstring strain on Oct. 23, in a 128-111 Pistons win over Miami.

The Pistons announced Sunday that Duren, who has already missed six games, won’t be back for at least two more weeks. Reed, previously third on Detroit’s center depth chart, has moved into a featured frontcourt job, and Dimers now projects him for 21.5 points tonight, nine points clear of his 12.5-point line and the widest gap on the board.

Dimers’ NBA predictions have Detroit favored at home over Washington, 114-104, pointing to a heavy workload up front all night. If the role holds for the next two weeks, it’s worth checking how the shift affects the rest of Detroit’s frontcourt rotation too.

Walker Kessler’s gap is smaller but moves in the same direction. The Lakers acquired him from Utah in a summer sign-and-trade, pairing him with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves as the core of their next phase. 

Through his first seven games with Los Angeles he was rebounding at a 9.9-per-game clip; over his last five games, that number has climbed to 13.2, essentially where Dimers has him projected tonight at 13.3, 2.8 clear of his 10.5-rebound line.

His workload has grown faster than the market has adjusted, and the number carries an 80 percent hit rate (4-for-5) over his last five games, including a 16-rebound outing this past Sunday.

Dimers’ predictions have Atlanta edging the Lakers 119-117 tonight, a close game that should keep Kessler on the glass deep into the fourth quarter.

Scottie Barnes presents the trickiest case, because his recent averages don’t make the over an obvious call. Dimers projects him for 8.4 assists tonight, 2.9 clear of his 5.5-assist line and nearly three assists above his 5.6-per-game clip over his last five outings, but those five games (4, 5, 5, 8 and 6 assists) have cleared the number just twice, a 40 percent hit rate.

The ceiling is real: on Nov. 2, Barnes posted 22 points, 15 rebounds and 8 assists to rally Toronto past the Clippers 125-118, handing Los Angeles its sixth straight loss, and that 8-assist outing is close to what Dimers projects for him again tonight.

Our model appears to be weighting his usage and tonight’s matchup, a 116-113 projected Raptors win over Memphis, more heavily than the quieter nights mixed into that five-game sample.

NEW FEATURES: Download the latest version of the Dimers app today

Stephen Curry needs the least explaining. Dimers projects him for 6.3 made threes tonight, 1.8 clear of his 4.5-made line and just a tick above his 6.0-per-game clip over his last five outings, a stretch with a perfect 100 percent hit rate (5-for-5) against this number, including makes of 8 and 6. Dimers has the Warriors beating New Orleans 120-112 at Chase Center tonight, a script that should keep Curry firing from deep all night.

Dimers Pro subscribers get the full set of NBA player projections for all eight games tonight, not just these four props, so you can see where else the model and the market disagree before you build your own card.

If you bet on tonight’s slate, keep it within what you can afford to lose. For more on betting responsibly, visit Dimers’ responsible gambling resources.