Thunder vs. Spurs prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 20, 2026

The San Antonio Spurs are favored to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday, according to Dimers' NBA pregame model.

Our Thunder vs. Spurs prediction gives San Antonio a 56.3% chance of winning at Frost Bank Center, with the latest odds also suggesting value in betting on the Spurs to win.

Thunder vs. Spurs: Key predictions

• Spurs win probability: 56.3%
• Thunder win probability: 43.7%
• Thunder -1.5 spread: 54.5% cover probability
• Under 230.5 points: 51.8% probability

Dimers' NBA pregame model estimates how many points each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent player performance, each team's strengths and weaknesses, projected playing time, player availability, and home-court advantage.

These projections power our NBA predictions, which show the probability of each team winning, covering the spread, and the total points going over or under the betting line.

Predictions last updated: October 20, 2026, at 6:24 PM ET.

Thunder vs. Spurs odds

Here are the best available odds for Tuesday's matchup across sportsbooks and prediction markets monitored by Dimers.

• Thunder moneyline: +112 (BetRivers)
• Spurs moneyline: +100 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Thunder -1.5: 51¢ (Kalshi)
• Spurs +1.5: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Over 230.5 points: -110 (DraftKings)
• Under 230.5 points: -105 (BetMGM)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Best value bet: Spurs moneyline (+100)

With San Antonio favored to beat Oklahoma City, Dimers' top value bet is the Spurs moneyline at +100, available at Caesars Sportsbook.

Those odds imply the Spurs have a 50.0% chance of winning, while our model puts that probability at 56.3%.

That's a 6.3% edge in the Spurs' favor, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets based on Dimers' probabilities and the best available odds.

Thunder vs. Spurs player projections

While Dimers' NBA pregame model predicts team-level outcomes, our separate NBA player props model projects individual player performance across points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent form, expected minutes, injuries, lineups, and defensive matchups.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads Dimers' scoring projections for this matchup, with the Thunder star also projected to record 3.7 rebounds and 6.3 assists. The Spurs have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Thunder's two.

Top five projected scorers

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder): 27.0 points
• Victor Wembanyama (Spurs): 25.0
• Jalen Williams (Thunder): 17.9
• Stephon Castle (Spurs): 16.2
• Dylan Harper (Spurs): 16.1

Projections across all major stat categories are available for every player expected to take the court on our NBA player projections page.

These are statistical projections, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to assess potential value.

Unlock all Thunder vs. Spurs predictions with Dimers Pro

Get the complete picture for Tuesday's matchup with Dimers Pro, including:

• Recommended bets for the moneyline, spread, and total points markets.
• Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams.
• High-value player props across points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals and blocks markets.

See our full range of Thunder vs. Spurs predictions with Dimers Pro.

Thunder vs. Spurs game details

• Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
• Date: Tuesday, October 20, 2026
• Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30 PM PT
• Venue: Frost Bank Center

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from Dimers' proprietary NBA models, presented through a human-written template. Matchup-specific information is populated automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and may change as new information becomes available. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.