Chicago vs. Toronto Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Chicago vs. Toronto MLS match on September 5, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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MLS
Chicago
4
:
4
BMO Field
Toronto
BMO Field
TorontoTOR
Score Summary
ChicagoCHI
J. Sargent (27')
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J. Sargent (38')
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J. Sargent (54')
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D. Etienne (90')
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M. Haile-Selassie (13')
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W. Zimmerman (o.g.) (49')
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M. Haile-Selassie (58')
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R. Lewandowski (64')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toronto
    0.0%
  • Draw
    100.0%
  • Chicago
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chicago Fire: J. Gomez replaces P. Zinckernagel
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    B. Kuscevic (Toronto FC) cautioned
  3. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toronto FC by D. Etienne, assisted by D. Salloi
    4-4
  4. 87'
    Yellow Card
    R. Lod (Chicago Fire) cautioned
  5. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: D. Etienne replaces D. Mihailovic
  6. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: E. Aristizabal replaces M. Cimermancic
  7. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chicago Fire: S. Oregel replaces M. Haile-Selassie
  8. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chicago Fire: M. Pineda replaces D. D'Avilla
  9. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: L. Morgan replaces T. Corbeanu
  10. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chicago Fire: R. Lod replaces P. Dithejane
  11. 64'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Chicago Fire by R. Lewandowski, assisted by P. Zinckernagel
    4-3
  12. 58'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Chicago Fire by M. Haile-Selassie, assisted by R. Lewandowski
    3-3
  13. 56'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: J. Gilman replaces Matheus Pereira
  14. 54'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toronto FC by J. Sargent, assisted by D. Mihailovic
    2-3
  15. 49'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Chicago Fire by W. Zimmerman (o.g.)
    2-2
  16. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chicago Fire: N. Allen replaces S. Rogers
  17. 38'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toronto FC by J. Sargent
    1-2
  18. 34'
    Yellow Card
    M. Cimermancic (Toronto FC) cautioned
  19. 27'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toronto FC by J. Sargent, assisted by D. Mihailovic
    1-1
  20. 18'
    Yellow Card
    S. Rogers (Chicago Fire) cautioned
  21. 13'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Chicago Fire by M. Haile-Selassie
    1-0

Chicago vs. Toronto: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Chicago vs. Toronto
  • Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: BMO Field

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Chicago 41¢, Toronto 34¢, draw 26¢
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (64¢/37¢)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Chicago: 38.4%
  • Toronto: 37.8%
  • Draw: 23.9%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Chicago 1-1 Toronto (10.8%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Chicago vs. Toronto? Prediction & correct score

Chicago is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 38.4%.

The most likely correct score is Chicago 1-1 Toronto.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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