New York City vs. Nashville SC prediction, odds, MLS picks [9/4/2026]

NY City and Nashville will meet in MLS action at Yankee Stadium on Friday, with kickoff at 7:30 PM ET.

Dimers' proven MLS model projects Nashville as the most likely winner in this NY City vs. Nashville prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's match, including best bets and picks.

New York City vs. Nashville SC prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's MLS matchup between NY City and Nashville, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 31.6% chance of NY City winning, a 43.0% chance for Nashville, and a 25.4% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 51.3% chance of going over, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Nashville +127, NY City +233
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-131/+113)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: NY City @ +233 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +113 via Polymarket

According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• NY City 1-1 Nashville (12.1% probability)
• NY City 0-1 Nashville (9.7%)
• NY City 1-2 Nashville (9%)

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Friday's MLS action between NY City and Nashville in MLS at Yankee Stadium is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: New York City vs. Nashville SC
• Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Yankee Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, NY City has a 31.6% win probability on Friday, Nashville has a 43.0% win probability, and there is a 25.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.