Padres vs. Mariners Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Padres vs. Mariners MLB game on May 17, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
MLB
FINAL
MLB sport icon
MLB
Padres
Lucas Giolito 0-0, 0.00 ERA
8
3
T-Mobile Park
Mariners
George Kirby 5-2, 2.84 ERA
T-Mobile Park
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Padres
1 0 0 0 1 5 1 0 0 8 10 2
Mariners
0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 1 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Padres
    100%
  • Mariners
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Mitch Garver strikes out swinging.
Quick Box Score
Padres Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 F. Tatis 2B5110001.2000.400
2 S. Song 3B0000000.0000.000
3 G. Sheets LF32342201.0004.333
4 M. Machado DH5110001.2000.600
5 X. Bogaerts SS3100012.0000.250
6 J. Merrill CF4111000.2500.750
7 R. Laureano RF3100012.0000.250
8 T. France 1B4033000.7501.500
9 F. Fermin C4000003.0000.000
Mariners Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 L. Rivas SS1100010.0000.500
2 J. Rodríguez CF3100010.0000.250
3 J. Naylor 1B3001010.0000.250
4 R. Arozarena LF3001001.0000.000
5 R. Refsnyder RF1001000.0000.000
6 C. Young 2B4000002.0000.000
7 D. Canzone DH3000011.0000.250
8 M. Garver C4000003.0000.000
9 C. Emerson 3B2100010.0000.333

Padres vs. Mariners: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Padres vs. Mariners
  • Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026
  • Time: 7:20 PM ET
  • Venue: T-Mobile Park

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Mariners favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 7.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Padres 41¢, Mariners 58¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Padres: 40%
  • Mariners: 60%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Padres a win probability of 40%, while the Mariners have a win probability of 60%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Mariners are more likely to beat the Padres in the MLB game at T-Mobile Park on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Padres vs. Mariners predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.