Pirates vs. D-Backs Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Pirates vs. D-Backs MLB game on May 7, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
Pirates
Mitch Keller 3-1, 2.85 ERA
4
2
May 7, 3:40 PM ET Chase Field
D-Backs
Zac Gallen 1-2, 4.45 ERA
May 7, 3:40 PM ET Chase Field
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Pirates
1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 4 7 0
D-Backs
1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Pirates
    100%
  • D-Backs
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Jorge Barrosa strikes out swinging.
Quick Box Score
Pirates Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 O. Cruz DH3000011.0000.400
2 B. Lowe 2B5231100.6001.800
3 B. Reynolds LF3100010.0000.250
4 R. O'Hearn RF4011002.2500.500
5 S. Horwitz 1B3011010.3330.833
6 K. Griffin SS4000002.0000.000
7 J. Triolo 3B4000001.0000.000
8 B. Cook CF4000001.0000.000
9 J. Bart C4121101.5001.750
D-Backs Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 G. Perdomo SS2100020.0000.500
2 K. Marte 2B4000001.0000.000
3 C. Carroll RF4121100.5001.750
4 N. Arenado DH1000001.0000.000
5 I. Vargas 1B4010001.2500.500
6 J. Fernandez 3B3000011.0000.250
7 J. Barrosa CF3000011.0000.250
8 G. Moreno C1000000.0000.000
9 T. Tawa LF1000000.0000.000

Pirates vs. D-Backs: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Pirates vs. D-Backs
  • Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
  • Time: 3:40 PM ET
  • Venue: Chase Field

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: D-Backs favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 8.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Pirates +106, D-Backs -106

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Pirates: 46%
  • D-Backs: 54%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Pirates a win probability of 46%, while the D-Backs have a win probability of 54%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the D-Backs are more likely to beat the Pirates in the MLB game at Chase Field on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Pirates vs. D-Backs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.