Astros vs. Red Sox Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Astros vs. Red Sox MLB game on May 3, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
Astros
Cody Bolton 0-1, 5.79 ERA
3
1
Fenway Park
Red Sox
Starter not available 2-2, 3.09 ERA
Fenway Park
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 RHE
Astros
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 3 10 1
Red Sox
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Astros
    100%
  • Red Sox
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Ceddanne Rafaela grounds out to shortstop. Marcelo Mayer out at second.
Quick Box Score
Astros Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 C. Correa SS3000021.0000.400
2 Y. Alvarez DH5010002.2000.400
3 I. Paredes 1B4010012.2500.900
4 B. Shewmake 3B0100000.0000.000
5 J. Altuve 2B4110000.2500.750
6 B. Matthews CF3001010.0000.200
7 C. Smith RF5032001.6001.200
8 Y. Diaz C0000000.0000.000
9 D. Johnson LF1000000.0000.000
Red Sox Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 J. Duran LF5121101.4001.400
2 W. Contreras 1B4030011.7501.800
3 R. Anthony DH5010000.2000.600
4 W. Abreu RF3000023.0000.400
5 I. Kiner-Falefa SS0000000.0000.000
6 M. Mayer 2B4010002.2500.650
7 C. Rafaela CF4000001.0000.200
8 C. Narváez C4010002.2500.750
9 C. Durbin 3B4000000.0000.000

Astros vs. Red Sox: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Astros vs. Red Sox
  • Date: Sunday, May 3, 2026
  • Time: 1:35 PM ET
  • Venue: Fenway Park

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Red Sox favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 8.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Astros 38¢, Red Sox 61¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Astros: 43%
  • Red Sox: 57%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Astros a win probability of 43%, while the Red Sox have a win probability of 57%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Red Sox are more likely to beat the Astros in the MLB game at Fenway Park on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Astros vs. Red Sox predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.