Mariners vs. Padres Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Mariners vs. Padres MLB game on April 16, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
MLB
FINAL
MLB sport icon
MLB
Mariners
Luis Castillo 0-0, 6.92 ERA
2
5
Petco Park
Padres
Walker Buehler 0-1, 4.97 ERA
Petco Park
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Mariners
0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 7 1
Padres
0 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 X 5 10 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Mariners
    0%
  • Padres
    100%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Cole Young called out on strikes.
Quick Box Score
Mariners Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 B. Donovan 3B3120010.6671.417
2 C. Raleigh C4021001.5001.000
3 J. Rodríguez CF3011002.3330.833
4 J. Naylor 1B4000001.0000.000
5 R. Arozarena LF3010010.3330.833
6 C. Joe RF2000001.0000.000
7 J. Crawford SS4000002.0000.000
8 M. Garver DH2000002.0000.000
9 C. Young 2B4110001.2500.500
Padres Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 R. Laureano LF4011011.2500.650
2 F. Tatis RF2112010.5001.250
3 J. Merrill CF4010001.2500.750
4 M. Machado 3B4021001.5001.000
5 X. Bogaerts SS4000001.0000.000
6 G. Sheets 1B3110011.3331.167
7 M. Andujar DH4120000.5001.000
8 L. Campusano C4111000.2500.500
9 J. Cronenworth 2B4110001.2500.500

Mariners vs. Padres: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Mariners vs. Padres
  • Date: Thursday, April 16, 2026
  • Time: 8:40 PM ET
  • Venue: Petco Park

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Mariners favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 8.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Mariners 51¢, Padres 48¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Mariners: 53%
  • Padres: 47%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Mariners a win probability of 53%, while the Padres have a win probability of 47%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Mariners are more likely to beat the Padres in the MLB game at Petco Park on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Mariners vs. Padres predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.