Phillies vs. Mets: MLB Prediction & Analysis

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Phillies vs. Mets MLB game on Friday, September 18, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
MLB
FINAL
MLB sport icon
MLB
Phillies
Tim Mayza 3-3, 3.06 ERA
3
6
Citi Field
Mets
Zac Thornton 4-5, 3.44 ERA
Citi Field
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Phillies
0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 3 6 0
Mets
3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 X 6 13 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Phillies
    0%
  • Mets
    100%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
J.T. Realmuto flies out to center field to A.J. Ewing.
Quick Box Score
Phillies Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 K. Schwarber DH2000011.0000.500
2 T. Turner SS4010001.2500.500
3 B. Harper RF4000003.0000.000
4 L. Arraez 2B4000000.0000.000
5 A. Bohm 1B4000000.0000.000
6 B. Marsh PH1000000.0000.000
7 B. Stott 3B4011000.2500.750
8 J. Realmuto C4000000.0000.000
9 D. Hill CF3111100.3331.666
Mets Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 F. Lindor SS5120002.4001.000
2 J. Soto LF5133100.6002.000
3 B. Bichette 3B5110001.2000.400
4 C. Benge RF3121000.6671.417
5 M. Vientos DH3010010.3330.833
6 A. Ewing CF4012002.2500.500
7 M. Semien 2B4110000.2500.500
8 B. Baty 1B3010011.3330.833
9 L. Torrens C4110002.2500.500

Phillies vs. Mets: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup overview: MLB Friday

  • Teams: Philadelphia Phillies vs. NY Mets Mets
  • Date: Friday, September 18, 2026
  • Time: 7:15PM ET
  • Venue: Citi Field

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Phillies (+1.5, -198), Mets (-1.5, +166)
  • Moneyline: Phillies +113, Mets -110
  • Total (Over/Under): 8.5 runs (-104/+100)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Phillies: 47.8%
  • Mets: 52.2%

Dimers' predictive MLB model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Phillies a win probability of 47.8%, while the Mets have a win probability of 52.2%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Mets are more likely to beat the Phillies in the MLB game at Citi Field on Friday. Discover the best run line, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Phillies vs. Mets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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